076
FXUS62 KMFL 230710
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
310 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD GENERATE
GUSTY WINDS, AS WELL AS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS AGAIN TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S, AND HEAT INDICES 103-107F.
- DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA STARTING TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST MAKES ITS FINAL
APPROACH. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. ALTOGETHER, THESE
FEATURES WILL PROMOTE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT, ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND WARMER, COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
EACH AFTERNOON. TODAY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ALONG INLAND MOVING BOUNDARIES. IN FACT, THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST FL, WITH 40-50% POPS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
HEAT WILL REMAIN A BIG CONCERN TODAY, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES REACH THE LOW 100S.
ALTHOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE EARLY-DAY
SHOWERS COULD HELP TEMPER TEMPERATURES A BIT, GUIDANCE IS STILL
FAIRLY BULLISH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF HEAT INDICES REACHING AND
EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO. AS
SUCH, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6PM TODAY FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS. MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC ARE ENCOURAGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OUTDOORS, TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS, STAYING
HYDRATED AND WEARING LIGHT CLOTHING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE
SAHARAN DUST LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRIER AIR WILL HELP SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE COMPARED TO THE SUMMERTIME NORMAL, BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST FL WHERE THE PREVAILING FLOW MEETS THE GULF BREEZE.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES UP INTO THE 105-110F
RANGE. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS COULD BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SOME CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE INTERIOR, WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KAPF. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THIS WEEK OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WHILE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OVER LAND AREAS.
HOWEVER, SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY DRIFT OFFSHORE IN THE EVENINGS AND
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT
1-2 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 93 79 92 79 / 30 20 40 20
WEST KENDALL 94 76 93 76 / 30 20 40 20
OPA-LOCKA 95 79 93 79 / 30 20 40 20
HOMESTEAD 93 79 92 79 / 30 20 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 80 91 79 / 30 20 40 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 93 79 91 79 / 30 20 40 30
PEMBROKE PINES 96 80 95 80 / 30 20 40 20
WEST PALM BEACH 93 78 92 78 / 30 30 40 30
BOCA RATON 92 79 91 79 / 30 30 40 30
NAPLES 92 79 91 78 / 10 10 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ071>074-172>174.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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