211
FXUS62 KMFL 232337
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
737 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 735 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MAJOR HEATRISK ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
- DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA STARTING TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AN EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION TODAY WITH STORMS FIRING UP ALONG
THE EAST COAST BY 15Z THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SIDE AND
ALONG COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS ARE ENSHROUDED IN ANVILS FROM THE
STORMS EARLIER TODAY, SO WE DON'T ANTICIPATE RE-DEVELOPMENT OVER
THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LINGERING SMOKE MAY BE A CONCERN AGAIN OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE ONGOING WILDFIRES ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE MIAMI METRO
AREA, HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT AS STRONG OF A SIGNAL ON THE HIGH-RES
MODELS AS IN PAST DAYS.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT WE MAY HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS,
BUT THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS IN THE MORNING.
CAMS ARE LATCHING ON TO CONVECTION BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE. DCAPE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TOMORROW THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY OF THE LATE
AFTERNOON STORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL GIVEN THE GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW
TOMORROW.
IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS, HEAT REMAINS A CONCERN TOMORROW WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF
103-107+ ONCE AGAIN. HEATRISK REMAINS IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE ROLL DEEPER INTO THE
WEEK AND TOWARD THE WEEKEND. RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE
FORECAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK REMAINS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (60-70% CHANCE) OF REACHING
THE MAJOR HEATRISK CATEGORY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEGINNING MID-MORNING TOMORROW, WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TERMINAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 524 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WHILE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE LAND, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY DRIFT OFFSHORE
IN THE EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN 1-2 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 92 79 92 / 10 40 20 20
WEST KENDALL 77 93 76 93 / 20 50 30 30
OPA-LOCKA 79 94 79 93 / 20 50 30 30
HOMESTEAD 79 93 79 92 / 10 40 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 92 80 92 / 30 50 20 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 91 79 91 / 30 50 20 40
PEMBROKE PINES 80 95 80 95 / 30 50 20 30
WEST PALM BEACH 78 92 78 92 / 20 60 30 60
BOCA RATON 79 91 79 91 / 20 50 20 40
NAPLES 79 91 78 92 / 10 20 10 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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