553
FXUS62 KMFL 241809
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 151 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD GENERATE
GUSTY WINDS, AS WELL AS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MAJOR HEATRISK ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
- DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
FEW CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF, IN
TANDEM WITH RIDGING ALOFT, SUPPORTING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AMPLE MOISTURE STILL OVERSPREADS THE REGION
AS EVIDENCE BY EARLY MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS (IN THE RANGE OF 1.7-
1.9 INCHES), AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LATER TODAY THANKS TO A DELAY
IN THE APPROACH OF A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS, WITH COVERAGE
MAXIMIZED OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL. SOME OF THAT
ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE
EVENING, BUT CHANCES OF THAT OCCURRING REMAIN LOW (~30% POPS).
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW-MOVING IN NATURE, AND COULD
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY SIMILAR ON THURSDAY AS RIDGING AND THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
THE HEAT FORECAST PRESENTS A SLIGHT CHALLENGE TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S. HOWEVER, WHETHER THOSE
VALUES WILL REACH OR EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA REMAINS UNCLEAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY ENTHUSED REGARDING EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO; THIS POSSIBILITY COULD
ALLOW FOR PROLONGED DIURNAL HEATING AND HIGHER HEAT INDICES THAT
MEET CRITERIA. HOWEVER, NEITHER THE NBM AND HREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 105F FOR MIAMI-DADE OR BROWARD,
OR GREATER THAN 108F ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. AND BOTH GUIDANCE TOOLS
HAVE ALSO BEEN AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A HEAT
ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT ONE COULD BE ISSUED LATER IN THE
DAY AS THE FORECAST, AND CONDITIONS, EVOLVE. REGARDLESS, HEATRISK
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OUTDOORS, TAKING
FREQUENT BREAKS, STAYING HYDRATED AND WEARING LIGHT CLOTHING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE
SAHARAN DUST LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MODELED PWATS DROP INTO THE 1.5-
1.7 INCH RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND DRIER AIR WILL HELP SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE COMPARED TO THE SUMMERTIME NORMAL, BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST FL WHERE THE PREVAILING FLOW MEETS THE GULF BREEZE.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S.
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS COULD BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH WEST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2
HOURS. TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY/CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR STORMS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OTHERWISE. EXPECT
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTIER CONDITIONS UP TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY COLLAPSING STORMS ON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AN
EARLY START TO CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY BY 11-13Z FOR
THE EAST COAST METRO AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THIS WEEK OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WHILE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OVER LAND AREAS.
HOWEVER, SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY DRIFT OFFSHORE IN THE EVENINGS AND
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT
1-2 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 92 80 92 / 30 20 10 20
WEST KENDALL 76 93 78 93 / 20 20 10 30
OPA-LOCKA 79 93 80 94 / 30 20 10 20
HOMESTEAD 79 92 80 92 / 20 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 81 91 / 30 20 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 91 81 91 / 30 30 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 80 95 81 95 / 30 20 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 78 92 80 92 / 30 30 10 20
BOCA RATON 79 91 81 91 / 30 30 10 20
NAPLES 78 92 78 94 / 10 30 30 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...MB
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