974
FXUS62 KMFL 250546
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MAJOR HEATRISK ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
- DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND COLLIDING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AGAIN TODAY. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
RESIDES ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS OF 18-19Z, THE AXIS OF
HIGHEST MLCAPE AND DCAPE RESIDES FURTHER INLAND, WHICH IS WHERE THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SEA BREEZE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY RACING
TOWARDS. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ALL OF THE BOUNDARIES START TO COLLIDE. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL TONIGHT BY 02-03Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING SMOKE REMAINS A CONCERN AGAIN OVERNIGHT NEAR THE ONGOING
WILDFIRES ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE MIAMI METRO AREA. THE AIR
QUALITY ALERT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 3PM TOMORROW
DUE TO THE LINGERING SMOKE CONCERNS ACROSS THE COUNTY.
THERE IS A SIGNAL IN SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCES THAT INDICATE AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS BETWEEN 11-13Z. AFTER AN
EARLY START, THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT DEVELOPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. DCAPE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TOMORROW THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN WITH ANY OF THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL
GIVEN THE GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW TOMORROW.
IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS, HEAT REMAINS A CONCERN TOMORROW WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF
103-107 AGAIN. HEATRISK REMAINS IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF MAJOR HEATRISK (50-60% CHANCE) REMAINS ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE ROLL TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK REMAINS
THE PREDOMINANT THREAT THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (60-70% CHANCE) OF REACHING
THE MAJOR HEATRISK CATEGORY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z WHEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL AGAIN
BECOME GENERALLY SE AROUND 10KT AFTER 14Z, EXCEPT FOR A WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE AT APF THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WHILE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE LAND, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY DRIFT OFFSHORE
IN THE EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN 1-2 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 80 92 81 / 20 10 20 10
WEST KENDALL 93 78 93 79 / 30 10 30 10
OPA-LOCKA 93 80 94 81 / 20 10 20 10
HOMESTEAD 91 80 92 80 / 20 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 82 92 82 / 20 10 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 81 91 81 / 30 10 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 94 81 95 82 / 20 10 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 91 80 92 80 / 30 10 30 10
BOCA RATON 91 81 91 82 / 30 10 30 10
NAPLES 92 77 93 78 / 40 40 50 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...17
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