801
FXUS62 KMFL 251157
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
757 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 752 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MAJOR HEATRISK ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY.
- DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP A RATHER RINSE-AND-REPEAT WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS, WHILE MODERATE RIDGING
DOMINATES THE MID/UPPER LVLS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE, AN U/L
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AND ALLOW
FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS TO REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE SE FLOW
TODAY, ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOFLO, LINGERING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE (MODEL AND SOUNDING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES) WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY, FAVORING INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS. BUT A FEW STRONG (OR
EVEN SEVERE) CELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER ANY OF THE
ATLANTIC METRO AREAS, ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS, THEN AGAIN IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH DRIFTING STORMS. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS,
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SLOW-MOVERS, AND CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX FORECAST, THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY HIT LOW-MID 90S, ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOW 100S. GUIDANCE REMAINS BORDERLINE ABOUT REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH DURATION BEING THE MAIN UNCERTAIN VARIABLE. BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 105-108 RANGE AT TIMES. BUT
REGARDLESS OF ISSUING AN ADVISORY OR NOT, THE HEAT RISK IS
EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORY, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINES. PEOPLE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE
OUTDOORS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, STAY HYDRATED AND WEAR LIGHT
CLOTHING. AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO SUNLIGHT AND LOOK FOR
SHELTER IF NECESSARY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS U/L HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SE CONUS AND THE
PENINSULA. SFC WEAK RIDGING ALSO PREVAILS, WITH THE ATLANTIC HIGH
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY RELAXED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM AND KEEPING AN OVERALL LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IN
PLACE AT THE SFC. SEA BREEZES SHOULD DOMINATE EACH EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD AND BECOME INITIAL FOCAL POINTS FOR CONVECTION.
THEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL LIKELY DRIVE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS, FAVORING INTERIOR AREAS. BUT SOME
STORMS MAY EITHER FROM OVER COASTAL METRO AREAS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, OR DRIFT INTO THEM LATER IN THE DAY OR IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MODELS INSIST IN HAVING A SAHARAN DUST LAYER
REACHING THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT ITS SPECIFIC EFFECTS ON
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.
A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN EACH DAY.
THE WEST COAST HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (60-70% CHANCE) OF
REACHING THE MAJOR HEATRISK CATEGORY TODAY AT SOME POINT.
THEREFORE, THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
CASE A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
KEEP REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S EACH DAY, WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER ONSHORE ALONG BOTH COASTS BY
16-18Z (SWRLY AT KAPF, SERLY AT EAST COAST TERMINALS). SHRA/TSRA
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ERRATIC WIND SHIFTS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET WITH L/V WINDS PREVAILING ONCE AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SSE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES, WHILE A MORE SSW FLOW IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON PERIOD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH SEA BREEZES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM OVER COASTAL AREAS, WITH A
FEW CELLS DRIFTING OFFSHORE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN 1-2 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 80 93 81 / 30 10 20 10
WEST KENDALL 93 78 93 79 / 30 10 30 10
OPA-LOCKA 94 80 94 81 / 30 20 30 10
HOMESTEAD 92 80 93 81 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 81 92 81 / 30 20 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 80 91 81 / 30 10 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 95 81 95 82 / 30 10 30 10
WEST PALM BEACH 92 80 92 80 / 40 10 20 10
BOCA RATON 91 81 91 81 / 40 10 20 10
NAPLES 92 77 93 78 / 50 20 50 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...HADI
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