509
FXUS62 KMFL 251937
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
337 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 151 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THOSE WHO DO
NOT HAVE HYDRATION OR ADEQUATE COOLING WILL BE AFFECTED.
- DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE OR LESS PERSISTENT
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES, THIS COUPLED
WITH WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW, WILL BRING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
RISK TO THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL FAVOR THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MOST PART, WITH ONLY LOW
END CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BRINGING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO THE AREA.
HEAT WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN STORY, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 90S. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AROUND, THIS WILL BRING HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 101-107 DEGREES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TO 103-107 ALONG THE WESTERN COAST FRIDAY. AT
THIS TIME, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. HEATRISK WILL ALSO BE IN THE
MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORY AGAIN ON FRIDAY SO THOSE SPENDING ANY
TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND USE ADEQUATE COOLING
MEASURES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING A LITTLE LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT EVEN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN OVERALL LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE. SEA
BREEZES, ALONG WITH GENERAL DAYTIME HEATING, SHOULD DOMINATE EACH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. ONCE
THESE OCCUR, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL DRIVE ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR MORE IN
THE INTERIOR TO WEST COAST, WITH THE EAST COAST BEING MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. LATE IN THE PERIOD, THIS MAY SHIFT A LITTLE
MORE TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH HIGHER POPS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED
DURING THAT TIME. WE ALSO MAY HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS FROM THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER AFFECTING THE REGION, BUT IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO
HOW MUCH THIS WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS WE SHOULD BE MORE ON THE
FRINGE OF THIS INTRUSION.
AS FOR HEAT...THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS WELL AND
BE A BIG CONCERN EACH DAY. A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK WILL
REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN EACH DAY. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO INCH UP
INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE FOR AT LEAST THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BUT
MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR THE EAST COAST AS WELL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HOW CONVECTION
WILL PLAY INTO THIS OR IF WE HIT THE HEAT BEFORE STORMS BEGIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART TODAY, OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MORESO IN THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC WIND SHIFTS AROUND TSRA
ACTIVITY. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SSE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES, WHILE A MORE SSW FLOW IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON PERIOD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH SEA BREEZES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM OVER COASTAL AREAS, WITH A
FEW CELLS DRIFTING OFFSHORE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN 1-2 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 93 81 93 / 10 20 10 30
WEST KENDALL 78 93 79 93 / 10 30 10 40
OPA-LOCKA 80 94 81 94 / 20 30 10 30
HOMESTEAD 80 93 81 93 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 92 81 92 / 20 20 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 91 81 91 / 10 20 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 81 95 82 95 / 10 30 10 30
WEST PALM BEACH 80 92 80 92 / 10 20 10 30
BOCA RATON 81 91 81 91 / 10 20 10 20
NAPLES 77 93 78 94 / 20 50 40 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM....JC
AVIATION...JC
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