653
FXUS62 KMFL 261046
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
646 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 645 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
THOSE WHO DO NOT HAVE HYDRATION OR ADEQUATE COOLING WILL BE
AFFECTED.
- DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA, STARTING LATE SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE CONUS DURING
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE W ATL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, HELPING IN KEEPING AN
OVERALL SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE
CURRENT WEAK TO MODERATE SE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY, WITH ONSHORE FLOW
DISRUPTIONS AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THE DOMINANCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, THERE
WILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST UPPER AIR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES, WHICH COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. AND
EVENTUAL COLLISIONS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE PREVAILING SE
COMPONENT TO THE SFC FLOW EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOFLO (~60%). HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG (OR EVEN SEVERE) CELLS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE OVER ANY OF THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS, ESPECIALLY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. ALSO, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL DRIFT AND
REACH EASTERN LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS, THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SLOW-MOVERS, AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX FORECAST, HEAT RELATED ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S EACH DAY. IN ADDITION, THE ABUNDANT WARM MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT
INDEX VALUES INTO THE 102-106 DEGREES RANGE ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND 105-108 ALONG THE WESTERN COAST TODAY. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. HEATRISK
WILL ALSO BE IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORY AGAIN TODAY, SO
PEOPLE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OUTDOORS, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS, STAY HYDRATED AND WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING. AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO SUNLIGHT AND LOOK FOR SHELTER IF NECESSARY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
MODELS INSIST IN THE ARRIVAL OF A SAHARAN DUST LAYER BY SUNDAY, BUT
ITS OVERALL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT AT THE MID LEVELS, BUT OVERALL
POPS REMAIN IN THE 20-40% FOR THE EAST SIDE OF SOFLO, AND 60-75% FOR
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN HALF ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE SE CONUS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH THE SFC ATLANTIC RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELAXED ENOUGH THROUGH THE
LONG TERM TO KEEP A GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO BECOME THE MAIN FOCAL
POINTS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
WILL LIKELY DRIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR INTERIOR AREAS. BUT SOME STORMS MAY
EITHER DEVELOP OVER COASTAL METRO AREAS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, OR
DRIFT INTO THEM LATER IN THE DAY OR IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK CONTINUES WITH MAIN CONCERN FOCUSING
ON THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (60-70% CHANCE) OF REACHING THE MAJOR
HEATRISK CATEGORY AT SOME POINT. THEREFORE, THE SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO KEEP REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S
EACH DAY, WITH A FEW UPPER 90S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SE WINDS 5-10 KTS TODAY, WITH AN AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZE AT APF.
SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE SSE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, BECOMING SSW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
COASTAL AREAS AND MOVE OVER LAND AT TIMES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 1-2 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 80 91 79 / 40 20 30 20
WEST KENDALL 93 78 92 77 / 40 20 40 20
OPA-LOCKA 93 80 93 80 / 40 20 30 10
HOMESTEAD 92 80 92 79 / 30 20 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 81 91 81 / 30 20 30 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 90 80 90 80 / 30 20 30 10
PEMBROKE PINES 94 81 94 81 / 40 20 30 10
WEST PALM BEACH 91 80 91 79 / 30 20 40 10
BOCA RATON 90 81 90 81 / 30 20 40 10
NAPLES 93 77 93 78 / 40 20 50 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF
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