692
FXUS62 KMFL 262231
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
631 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
THOSE WHO DO NOT HAVE HYDRATION OR ADEQUATE COOLING WILL BE
AFFECTED.
- DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA, STARTING LATE SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
CURRENTLY THERE HAVE BEEN A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAVE BEEN GOOD
INSTIGATION GUIDANCE, WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS INTENSIFYING TO
THE POINT OF NEEDING SUB-SEVERE PRODUCTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED, WITH WIDESPREAD DCAPE
VALUES > 800 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. WITH SOME OF THESE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS, SMALL AMOUNTS OF
ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THESE STORMS, AS WELL AS SMALL
FUNNELS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CYCLONE DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
REGION. PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
BASED ON SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
PLENTIFUL, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING OVER 1.8 INCHES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH ENHANCED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
2 INCHES. THE LACK OF ANY MAJOR FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
ASIDE FROM THE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS, HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
OTHER MAIN STORY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
REGION AND HEAT INDEXES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S ACROSS
INLAND FLORIDA, WITH MID 100S ALONG THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE REGION, AND
EXTEND TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, FURTHER
SOLIDIFYING THE CURRENT PATTERN OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LAYER OF MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR TO ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION DUE TO A LAYER OF SAHARAN
DUST MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE TEMPORARY DRY AIR INTRUSION IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH LOWER
POPS, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE
TO HIGHER LAPSE RATES IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE. WITH NO SORT OF
CHANGE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL FLOW, HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT, AND THE
SPEED INCREASES TO AROUND 10KTS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DIRECTION SATURDAY WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON THE SEA BREEZE, WITH
SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY DIRECTIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, AND
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, WITH ERRATIC WINDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE SSE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS, BECOMING SSW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS AND MOVE OVER LAND AT TIMES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 1-2 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 91 79 92 / 40 30 30 30
WEST KENDALL 78 92 77 93 / 30 40 30 40
OPA-LOCKA 80 93 80 93 / 40 30 30 40
HOMESTEAD 80 92 80 92 / 30 40 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 91 81 91 / 40 30 30 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 91 / 40 30 30 40
PEMBROKE PINES 81 94 81 94 / 40 30 30 40
WEST PALM BEACH 79 91 79 91 / 30 20 20 40
BOCA RATON 80 90 80 90 / 40 20 20 40
NAPLES 77 93 77 93 / 30 60 40 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ZWINK
LONG TERM....ZWINK
AVIATION...ZWINK
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