584
FXUS62 KMFL 271742
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
142 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA, STARTING LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW PERSISTING U/L HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE
WEST ATLANTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ITS SFC RIDGE INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY, KEEPING THE CURRENT
SE FLOW IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH ONSHORE FLOW DISRUPTIONS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP AS SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF A SAHARAN DUST LAYER REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN
WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING DEFINITE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST
SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP FOLLOWING THE OVERALL NBM
SOLUTION WITH SIMILAR POPS/WX AND TEMPS AS TODAY.
LOCALLY, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION EACH DAY. MFL 00Z AND MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT PWATS
IN THE 1.8-2.0 INCHES RANGE, WHICH COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL OUTFLOW COLLISIONS, SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GENERALLY SE FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOFLO (POPS OF 60~75%, AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C).
BUT, AS IN THE PAST TWO DAYS, A FEW STRONG (OR EVEN SEVERE) CELLS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SOME OF THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS,
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. ALSO, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OR
DRIFT TOWARDS EASTERN LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND OR ABOVE NORMALS WITH HEAT
RELATED ISSUES EXPECTED EACH DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN HIT THE
LOW-MID 90S, AND WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE, HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD REACH THE 104-106 DEGREES RANGE ALONG THE EAST COAST.
FOR THE WEST COAST EXPECT HEAT INDEX IN THE 104-107 DEGREES RANGE.
HEATRISK WILL ALSO BE IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORY AGAIN TODAY,
SO PEOPLE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OUTDOORS, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS, STAY HYDRATED AND WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING. AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO SUNLIGHT AND LOOK FOR SHELTER IF NECESSARY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
LATEST NBM AND LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO FINALLY REFLECT
THE INITIAL INFLUENCE OF A SAL BY MONDAY, WITH POPS/WX COVERAGE
DOWN TO THE LOWEST VALUES OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SINGLE POPS
FOR THE EAST COAST, AND UP TO 25% FOR INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS.
THIS IS DRIVEN MAINLY BY DRIER AIR INTRUSION AT THE MID LEVELS.
THE DRY SPELL SEEMS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS SHOW RELATIVE GOOD
CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE SEABOARD
REGION, WHICH SENDS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT ITS INFLUENCE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO STEADILY RAISE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE
70-80% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.
EVEN WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SHOULD REMAIN RELAXED ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE, AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP. EARLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES PUSHING INLAND. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL LIKELY
DRIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR INTERIOR AREAS. BUT SOME STORMS MAY EITHER
DEVELOP OVER COASTAL METRO AREAS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, OR DRIFT
INTO THEM LATER IN THE DAY OR IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HEATRISK AT THE MODERATE TO MAJOR LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN EACH DAY. THE EAST COAST HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (60-70%
CHANCE) OF REACHING THE MAJOR HEATRISK CATEGORY AT SOME POINT.
THEREFORE, THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
CASE A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
KEEP REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S EACH DAY, WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND ANY
SITES IMPACTED WILL POSSIBLY SEE A REDUCTION TO MVFR CRITERIA
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT BETWEEN
VARIABLE AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE SEA
BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SSE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, BECOMING SSW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
COASTAL AREAS AND MOVE OVER LAND AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 2-3 FEET RANGE OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 91 80 93 / 20 30 0 10
WEST KENDALL 77 92 78 94 / 30 30 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 80 93 80 94 / 20 30 0 10
HOMESTEAD 79 92 80 93 / 40 20 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 91 81 92 / 20 20 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 91 81 92 / 20 30 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 81 94 81 96 / 20 30 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 80 91 80 92 / 20 30 0 10
BOCA RATON 80 90 81 91 / 20 30 0 10
NAPLES 77 92 78 94 / 30 50 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ZWINK
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