487
FXUS62 KMFL 280558
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
158 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 116 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA, STARTING LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN HIGHER IN INTENSITY
THAN PREVIOUS DAYTIME CONVECTION, WITH STORMS REACHING TO JUST
BENEATH SEVERE CRITERIA OF WINDS. THE 12Z BALLOON SHOWED NEARLY 4000
J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE, WITH CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AS WELL AS
WIDESPREAD DCAPE OF 800 J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
INTERACTIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORS THROUGH
THE DAY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, IN PARTICULAR CLOSER TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING STORMS, LATEST DATA INDICATES NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, WITH OVERALL RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE REGION
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ROUTINE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY THROUGH THE REGION (PW VALUES ~1.8
INCHES), PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY SMALL
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. STORM MOTIONS WILL
REMAIN SLOW, WITH NO MAJOR GUIDING FLOW ALOFT UNTIL YOU GET TO THE
UPPER LEVELS, WHICH WILL SHIFT STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HEAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION WILL BE IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDEXES
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S ACROSS INLAND FLORIDA, WITH MID
100S ALONG THE COASTS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN CASE HEADLINES/ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN OF HOT CONDITIONS, DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS, AND A FOCUS ON SEA
BREEZE FORCING BEING THE FOCAL OF STORMS THROUGH THE REGION. ONE
MAJOR VARIATION WILL BE THE INFLUENCE OF SAHARAN DUST IN THE MID-
LEVELS ADVECTED THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THESE WILL HELP LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AS WELL AS RESULT IN
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE DUST WILL ALSO LIMIT CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARDS IN
TEMPERATURES, HEAT INDEXES WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN EARLY IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
L/V WINDS AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z WHEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND VCTS IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME
GENERALLY SE AROUND 10K TODAY, EXCEPT FOR WESTERLY FLOW AT APF
AFTER 17Z WITH GULF BREEZES. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. L/V FLOW RETURNS THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SSE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, BECOMING SSW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
COASTAL AREAS AND MOVE OVER LAND AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 2-3 FEET RANGE OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 80 93 80 / 30 0 10 0
WEST KENDALL 92 78 94 78 / 30 0 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 93 80 94 80 / 30 0 10 0
HOMESTEAD 92 80 93 80 / 20 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 81 92 81 / 30 0 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 80 92 80 / 30 0 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 94 81 96 81 / 30 0 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 91 79 92 80 / 30 0 10 0
BOCA RATON 90 81 91 81 / 30 0 10 0
NAPLES 93 77 94 79 / 50 10 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ZWINK
LONG TERM....ZWINK
AVIATION...17
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