454
FXUS62 KMFL 281740
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY, FAVORING INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS. THE
MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
LITTLE CHANGES IN MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO
FOR THE SHORT TERM. U/L HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF MUCH
OF THE REGION, INCLUDING THE GULF REGION AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ALSO, SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED
SFC RIDGE STRETCHED INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A GENERALLY SE FLOW.
IN GENERAL, EXPECT AGAIN A WEATHER PATTERN WHERE SEA BREEZES BECOME
FOCAL POINTS FOR CONVECTION AS THEY PUSH INLAND DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PROVIDE A SECOND
PUSH TO CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NBM FINALLY
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICIPATED SAL, GOING FROM 60-70% TODAY TO 10-
30% BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS, SO NBM WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN GUIDANCE FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOCALLY, THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH MFL UPPER
AIR DATA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICTING PWATS IN THE 1.8-2.0
INCHES RANGE, ALONG WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2K J/KG. THE 500 MB TEMPS
SEEM TO BE COMING A TAD WARMER IN LATEST GUIDANCE AROUND -7C.
THEREFORE, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE PREVAILING SE WINDS KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOFLO. BUT, AS IN
THE PAST FEW DAYS, SOME STRONG (OR EVEN SEVERE) CELLS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER SOME OF THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. BY
MONDAY, THE SAL INTRUSION FINALLY BRINGS A LIMITING FACTOR TO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH POPS DROPPING INTO THE 10-30% RANGE AND
A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER VERTICAL PROFILE ACROSS SOFLO.
THE HEAT CONTINUES, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE LOW-MID
90S, AND WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE, HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE 100-105 DEGREES RANGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. FOR THE
WEST COAST EXPECT HEAT INDEX IN THE 105-109 DEGREES RANGE.
ALSO EXPECT A HEATRISK IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORY AGAIN
TODAY, SO PEOPLE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OUTDOORS, TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS, STAY HYDRATED AND WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING. AVOID
PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO SUNLIGHT AND LOOK FOR SHELTER IF NECESSARY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE DRIER WEATHER WON'T LAST LONG WITH GUIDANCE SHOW A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINAS, WHICH SENDS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, STEADILY RAISING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE 80% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. BUT EVEN WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD REMAIN RELAXED ENOUGH TO KEEP
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE, AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PUSHING INLAND. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL LIKELY DRIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR INTERIOR AREAS. BUT SOME STORMS MAY EITHER
DEVELOP OVER COASTAL METRO AREAS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, OR DRIFT
INTO THEM LATER IN THE DAY OR IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HEATRISK AT THE MODERATE TO MAJOR LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN EACH DAY. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN CASE A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO KEEP REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S EACH DAY, WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AND WEST COAST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA, BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO TERMINALS. OVERALL MOST
SITES WILL REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KAPF, WHERE
THE GULF BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS WEST AND INITIATE SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ACTIVITY WANES AFTER SUNSET, WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AREA-WIDE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SSE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, BECOMING
SSW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS AND MOVE
OVER LAND AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 2-3 FEET RANGE OR LESS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 93 80 94 / 0 0 0 30
WEST KENDALL 77 94 77 95 / 0 10 0 40
OPA-LOCKA 79 95 79 96 / 0 10 0 30
HOMESTEAD 80 93 79 94 / 0 0 0 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 92 81 93 / 0 0 0 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 92 80 93 / 0 10 0 30
PEMBROKE PINES 81 96 81 98 / 0 10 0 30
WEST PALM BEACH 79 92 79 93 / 0 0 0 30
BOCA RATON 80 91 80 93 / 0 0 0 30
NAPLES 77 94 79 94 / 10 10 10 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...NMP
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