801
FXUS62 KMFL 290821
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
421 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 410 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
- MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES, EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCHING
110 DEGREES POSSIBLE.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS CONSISTENT IN GUIDANCE WITH MID-
U/L HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL KEEP ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE STRETCHED INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE, BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN MIGRATING SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO SOFLO
AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE SHORT TERM.
RADAR DATA FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED THE ONSET OF A BRIEF DRYING TREND
WITH LESS OVERALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPARED TO LAST
WEEK, AN INDICATION THAT THE EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF A SAL IS FINALLY
HERE. NBM HAS TRENDED EVEN LOWER FOR POPS/WX COVERAGE TODAY, WITH
SINGLE-DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF SOFLO. THEREFORE, EXPECT A GENERALLY
DRY DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FAVORING SW AREAS.
THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID-UPPER 90S, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS TODAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS PERSISTENT IN NOT REACHING
DURATION CRITERIA FOR WEST COAST AREAS. REGARDLESS, POTENTIAL FOR
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES TOUCHING 109-110 DEGREES WILL RESIDE MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR/WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. PEOPLE SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OUTDOORS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, STAY HYDRATED
AND WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING. AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO SUNLIGHT AND
LOOK FOR SHELTER IF NECESSARY.
FOR TUESDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL EVOLVE RATHER QUICKLY,
SHIFTING BACK TO A WETTER PATTERN AHEAD OF THE NEARING
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY FILTERS
INTO THE AREA WITH A MUCH WETTER VERTICAL PROFILE ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(BACK TO PWATS AROUND 2"). POPS JUMP BACK INTO THE 30-50% FOR EAST
COAST AREAS, AND 60-70% FOR INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS BY THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A KEY DIFFERENCE WILL ALSO BE THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW, WHICH WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, OR EVEN CALM AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW-
MOVING OR EVEN STATIONARY CELLS WITH LITTLE TO NO STEERING FLOW
AVAILABLE, WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS AND FLOODING. SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
WILL ALSO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, THE HEAT
ISSUES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN
THE LOW- MID 90S, AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE KEEPING HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 DEGREES RANGE ALONG THE EAST COAST.
FOR THE WEST COAST EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN IN THE 105-109
DEGREES RANGE, POSSIBLY TOUCHING 110 AT TIMES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS TO
EXTEND THE WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GLOBAL SOLUTIONS
AND NBM PUSHING MAX POPS INTO THE 80-90% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK TO CALM FLOW AT THE SFC
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE W ATL RIDGE AND THE FRONT TO
THE NORTH REMAINING VERY RELAXED.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND BECOME FOCAL POINTS FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF
WEATHER. AS THEY PUSH INLAND, OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL
LIKELY DRIVE THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS. BUT SOME STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER COASTAL METRO AREAS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, OR DRIFT
INTO THEM LATER IN THE DAY OR IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH SLOW-
MOVING OR EVEN STATIONARY STORMS DELIVERING HIGH RATES OF RAINFALL
OVER ONE LOCATION.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEATRISK LEVEL, REMAINING IN
THE MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS
COULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S MID WEEK, AND STAY IN THE LOW-MID 90S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT WARM MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA TO KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
L/V WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE AROUND 10KT AFTER 15-16Z, EXCEPT
APF WHERE WESTERLY GULF BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. L/V
FLOW RETURNS AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SSE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, BECOMING SSW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON TUESDAY,
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT 2 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 93 79 94 79 / 10 0 40 30
WEST KENDALL 95 76 95 77 / 10 0 50 20
OPA-LOCKA 95 79 95 79 / 10 0 40 30
HOMESTEAD 93 79 93 79 / 10 0 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 80 93 80 / 0 0 30 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 92 79 93 80 / 0 0 30 30
PEMBROKE PINES 96 80 97 81 / 0 0 40 30
WEST PALM BEACH 92 78 93 79 / 10 0 40 30
BOCA RATON 91 80 93 80 / 0 0 30 30
NAPLES 94 79 93 78 / 10 20 40 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page