220
FXUS62 KMFL 140707
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
307 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS DURING
EXTENDED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
- MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE O REGION AND NORTHERN PALM
BEACH COUNTY.
- DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES
OVERALL, HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND PUSH TOWARDS THE
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, THE DRIER AND
DUSTIER IT GETS. AN UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER THE MID-SOUTH WILL
KEEP A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR RICH GULF MOISTURE TO CONVERGE ALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT
WEST OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS, BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WIND PATTERN OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOFLO.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE SAHARAN AIR MASS STRETCHED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF, LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF HAZIER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT, SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD NORTH-TO-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PENINSULA, WITH PWATS UP TO 2.4 INCHES NEAR THE PANHANDLE AND AS
LOW AS 1.4 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE POPS FOR TODAY
REFLECT THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS (45% CHANCE) NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
POPS DECREASE FURTHER SOUTH, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE.
THE RECENT MFL 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY SIMILAR PROFILE TO
YESTERDAY, WITH A STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 950 AND 600 MB. WITH
LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT AND THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, CONVECTION
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, CAMS HAVE CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BREEZE IN MORE MOIST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO ZIPPER SOUTHWARD ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW COLLISIONS,
WITH ACTIVITY SPILLING INTO NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GLADES COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE, SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA MAY
CREATE A A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE EVERGLADES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LIKE YESTERDAY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED US
IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT STRONG
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH DCAPE ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 900 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. LASTLY, WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR -9 C, THERE WERE ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF
LARGE HAIL. THE STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
PROBABLY BE DEPENDENT ON THE ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS YESTERDAY WERE ABLE TO
RETAIN A LOT OF ENERGY AS THEY PUSHED SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, A
FEW STRONG STORMS WERE EVEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE IN DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IN BROWARD. A SIMILAR SCENARIO COULD PLAY OUT THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS WHY POPS WERE KEPT IN THE 20 TO 30% RANGE FOR
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
FOR TUESDAY, THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER
END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, UP TO 40%. ONCE AGAIN
THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FORMING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED.
HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 100 TO 108 F RANGE, LEADING
TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF HEAT ILLNESS FOR PEOPLE WITHOUT PROPER
HYDRATION AND COOLING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-
WEEK, AND WILL BE PROPAGATING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A LIGHTER FLOW REGIME, WITH VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
OVERNIGHT, AND ONSHORE FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZES ALONG EACH
COAST. DRIER SAHARAN AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN FOR AT
LEAST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE SEA BREEZES ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE - AROUND 20-30% - MAXIMIZED ACROSS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND SAL IMPACTS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE 30-40% RANGE, STILL
MAXIMIZED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL BE EXPLORED EACH DAY. LIMIT
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU SEE SYMPTOMS
OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. FOR MORE ON WHAT YOU CAN DO TO
PREPARE FOR AND MITIGATE HEAT ILLNESS, VISIT READY.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 16Z. L/V FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AS SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT KAPF WITH THE GULF
BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. MODERATE EAST- SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING 3 FEET OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 95 80 95 80 / 10 10 10 10
WEST KENDALL 95 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 96 79 96 79 / 10 10 10 10
HOMESTEAD 94 80 94 79 / 0 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 81 94 81 / 10 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 93 80 94 80 / 10 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 97 81 97 81 / 10 10 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 94 78 94 79 / 20 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 92 79 93 79 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 94 77 95 79 / 20 20 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ068>070-072-074-075-168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...17
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