701
FXUS62 KMFL 141150
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
750 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 740 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 EXPECTED TODAY. TAKE APPROPRIATE
PRECAUTIONS DURING EXTENDED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
- FEWER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH BEST CHANCES OVER
WEST-INTERIOR AREAS.
- DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES
OVERALL, HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND PUSH TOWARDS THE
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MODEL ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SHOW FAIR CONSENSUS REGARDING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS TODAY, KEEPING
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE, IT SEEMS THAT FINALLY THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL BEGIN
TAMING DOWN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOFLO TODAY.
LATEST NBM AND ENSEMBLE POPS/WX COVERAGE DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT
FOR MOST EAST COAST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, 20-40% FOR MOST WEST
COAST LOCATIONS. THE OVERALL WEAK SE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO AGAIN DOMINATE, KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER INTERIOR WESTERN SOFLO AS THE BREEZES PUSH INLAND.
LATEST SPC CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK KEEPS THE RISK CATEGORY FOR SOFLO AS
REGULAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME CAPE
(AROUND 1K J/KG), ALONG WITH LINGERING PWATS IN THE 1.5-1.8" RANGE,
WHICH AMONG OTHER FACTORS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE AGAIN HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL POSSIBLY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN TODAY, MAINLY OVER AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMES FURTHER SUPPRESSED (EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR EXAMPLE).
LATEST HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR TODAY SHOW POTENTIAL MAX VALUES IN
THE 105-110F RANGE. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT,
FOCUSING ON COASTAL METRO AREAS AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR COLLIER
COUNTY. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID RISKING HEAT ILLNESS IMPACTS BY
REMAINING HYDRATED AND REMAINING IN COOL LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HOURS.
CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN DRIER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SAL INTENSIFIES AND
HELPS IN FURTHER DRYING THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOFLO. POPS/WX COVERAGE
DROPS TO SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS, AND 20-30 PERCENT FOR
WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS AS SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HIT THE MID-
UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOFLO, AND EVEN APPROACH 100 OVER INTERIOR
COLLIER COUNTY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MODELS SHOW OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION TO START THE
LONG TERM , WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS RESULTING IN GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS EACH DAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. MEANWHILE, THE
DRIER SAHARAN AIR IS DEPICTED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. SEA BREEZES SHOULD
AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR LIFTING/DEEP CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 20-30%,
WITH BEST CHANCES OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST AREAS.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE SAHARAN DUST WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AND ALLOW FOR POPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE. SEA BREEZES WILL
AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN FOCAL POINTS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL HIT THE MID-UPPER
90S EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL BE EXPLORED EACH DAY.
LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU SEE
SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. FOR MORE ON WHAT YOU
CAN DO TO PREPARE FOR AND MITIGATE HEAT ILLNESS, VISIT
READY.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
OVERALL WE ARE GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER
21Z ALONG THE SEA BREEZES GENERALLY STAYING INLAND AND EAST AND
WEST OF THE TERMINALS. L/V FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE FLOW AS
SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10
KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WESTERLY UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR
KAPF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET ACROSS GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 95 80 95 80 / 10 10 10 10
WEST KENDALL 95 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 96 79 96 79 / 10 10 10 10
HOMESTEAD 94 80 94 79 / 0 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 81 94 81 / 10 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 93 80 94 80 / 10 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 97 81 97 81 / 10 10 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 94 78 94 79 / 20 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 92 79 93 79 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 94 77 95 79 / 20 20 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ068>070-072-074-075-168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...MUELLER
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