233
FXUS62 KMFL 150714
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
314 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 312 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
- HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS DURING EXTENDED PERIODS
OUTDOORS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
- SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
SMALL HAIL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA COMBINED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER INTRUDING ACROSS THE MID
LEVELS, THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT BAY
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS
DIURNAL HEATING HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, (SB CAPE
VALUES OF 3500-4500 J/KG), FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG SEA
BREEZE COLLISIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WITH DCAPE VALUES HOVERING
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1100 J/KG, THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHERE INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS AS WELL WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING BETWEEN -8 AND
-9C. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LEAVING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO AROUND 80
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MODEL ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SHOW FAIR CONSENSUS REGARDING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS TODAY, KEEPING
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE, IT SEEMS THAT FINALLY THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL BEGIN
TAMING DOWN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOFLO TODAY.
LATEST NBM AND ENSEMBLE POPS/WX COVERAGE DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT
FOR MOST EAST COAST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, 20-40% FOR MOST WEST
COAST LOCATIONS. THE OVERALL WEAK SE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO AGAIN DOMINATE, KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER INTERIOR WESTERN SOFLO AS THE BREEZES PUSH INLAND.
LATEST SPC CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK KEEPS THE RISK CATEGORY FOR SOFLO AS
REGULAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME CAPE
(AROUND 1K J/KG), ALONG WITH LINGERING PWATS IN THE 1.5-1.8" RANGE,
WHICH AMONG OTHER FACTORS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE AGAIN HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL POSSIBLY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN TODAY, MAINLY OVER AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMES FURTHER SUPPRESSED (EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR EXAMPLE).
LATEST HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR TODAY SHOW POTENTIAL MAX VALUES IN
THE 105-110F RANGE. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT,
FOCUSING ON COASTAL METRO AREAS AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR COLLIER
COUNTY. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID RISKING HEAT ILLNESS IMPACTS BY
REMAINING HYDRATED AND REMAINING IN COOL LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HOURS.
CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN DRIER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SAL INTENSIFIES AND
HELPS IN FURTHER DRYING THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOFLO. POPS/WX COVERAGE
DROPS TO SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS, AND 20-30 PERCENT FOR
WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS AS SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HIT THE MID-
UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOFLO, AND EVEN APPROACH 100 OVER INTERIOR
COLLIER COUNTY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MODELS SHOW OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION TO START THE
LONG TERM, WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS RESULTING IN GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS EACH DAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. MEANWHILE, THE
DRIER SAHARAN AIR IS DEPICTED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY.
SEA BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR
LIFTING/DEEP CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 20-30%, WITH BEST CHANCES OVER INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE SAHARAN DUST WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AND ALLOW FOR POPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE. SEA BREEZES WILL
AGAIN BECOME THE MAIN FOCAL POINTS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL HIT THE MID-UPPER
90S EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL BE EXPLORED EACH DAY.
LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU SEE
SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. FOR MORE ON WHAT YOU
CAN DO TO PREPARE FOR AND MITIGATE HEAT ILLNESS, VISIT
READY.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
PERIODS OF VCSH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15-
16Z. AT KAPF, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WSW AROUND 10KT BY 16-17Z AS
THE GULF BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET ACROSS GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 95 80 95 81 / 10 10 20 10
WEST KENDALL 96 77 96 78 / 10 10 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 96 79 97 81 / 10 10 20 10
HOMESTEAD 94 79 95 80 / 10 10 20 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 94 81 95 81 / 10 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 94 80 95 81 / 20 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 97 80 98 82 / 20 10 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 94 78 95 79 / 20 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 92 79 93 80 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 95 78 94 80 / 10 10 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
FLZ068>070-072-074-168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATV
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