475
FXUS62 KMFL 150815
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 410 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
- HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-109 POSSIBLE TODAY FROM LATE MORNING
TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS
DURING EXTENDED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
FAVORING INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
- SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOW A DRIER DAY TODAY WITH GFS BEING THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN TERMS OF DECREASING POPS ACROSS SOFLO. THE
BRUNT OF THE SAL SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
DRIVE CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE 20-40% RANGE. NAM PUSHES SEA
BREEZES INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD HELP IN KEEPING
COASTAL AREAS DRIER THAN INTERIOR SOFLO. SPC KEEPS THE RISK
CATEGORY FOR SOFLO AS REGULAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT AS IN THE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS, GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS SOME DCAPE AROUND 1K
J/KG, ALONG WITH LINGERING PWATS IN THE 1.4-1.8" RANGE. WHICH
AMONG OTHER FACTORS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STRONG STORMS, MAINLY INLAND AND WESTERN SOFLO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ALSO CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AGAIN CLOSE TO OR AT ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER
AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES FURTHER SUPPRESSED, WITH
HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR TODAY SHOWING POSSIBLE MAX VALUES IN THE 105-
109F RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM TO 7PM EDT,
FOCUSING ON COASTAL METRO AREAS AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR COLLIER
COUNTY. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID RISKING HEAT ILLNESS IMPACTS BY
REMAINING HYDRATED AND IN COOL LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON PEAK HOURS.
FOR THURSDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DRIEST DAY SO FAR AS
THE SAL REMAINS OVER THE REGION. POPS/WX COVERAGE DROPS TO 10% OR
LESS FOR MUCH OF SOFLO WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURES WILL HIT THE
MID-UPPER 90S, AND EVEN APPROACH 100 OVER INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
MODELS SHOW OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION, WITH THE
WEST ATL MID-LVL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SE CONUS AND A SFC
RIDGE JUST E OF THE AREA. PREVAILING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSH INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. THE SAL
SHOULD LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, LATEST LONG
RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE HINTING AT AN EARLIER RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE E CONUS AND WEAKENING THE HIGH
PRESSURE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALSO HELPS IN ENHANCING A LITTLE THE
OVERALL SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN MOISTURE
FILTERING INTO SOFLO AND POPS/WX JUMPING BACK INTO THE 40-60%
RANGE.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WON'T CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SATURDAY SO FAR BEING THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
INTRUSION. LATEST NBM CAME WITH UP TO 70% POPS/SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTERIOR AND EASTERN SOFLO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEA
BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP EACH DAY AND DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER
CONVECTION.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL HIT THE
MID-UPPER 90S EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL BE EXPLORED
EACH DAY. LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND TAKE ACTION WHEN
YOU SEE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. FOR MORE ON
WHAT YOU CAN DO TO PREPARE FOR AND MITIGATE HEAT ILLNESS, VISIT
READY.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
PERIODS OF VCSH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15-
16Z. AT KAPF, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WSW AROUND 10KT BY 16-17Z AS
THE GULF BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON AS THE GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 95 80 95 81 / 10 10 20 10
WEST KENDALL 96 77 96 78 / 10 10 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 96 79 97 81 / 10 10 20 10
HOMESTEAD 94 79 95 80 / 10 10 20 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 94 81 95 81 / 10 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 94 80 95 81 / 20 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 97 80 98 82 / 20 10 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 94 78 95 79 / 20 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 92 79 93 80 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 95 78 94 80 / 10 10 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ068>070-072-074-168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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