597
FXUS62 KMFL 160558
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
158 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
- HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS DURING EXTENDED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING FAVORING INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
- SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
AND SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
FEW CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF, IN
TANDEM WITH RIDGING ALOFT, SUPPORTING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, WE ARE STILL SEEING THE IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST OVER THE REGION, WHICH
IS HELPING LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT,
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES ARE LOOKING FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE, WELL BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS SETUP WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS,
WITH COVERAGE MAXIMIZED OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL. SOME
OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE
IN THE EVENING, BUT CHANCES OF THAT OCCURRING REMAIN LOW (~30%
POPS). ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW-MOVING IN NATURE, AND
COULD BRING STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL. THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
SIMILAR, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DO TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHEAST METRO
AREAS IN THE EVENING. THIS WILL COME AS A RESULT OF MORE
SOUTHERLY- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS.
THE HEAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE URBAN AREAS IN MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, PALM
BEACH AND COLLIER COUNTIES TIL LATER THIS EVENING, AND WE WILL
LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ONE TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
MODELS SHOW OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION, WITH THE
WEST ATL MID-LVL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SE CONUS AND A SFC
RIDGE JUST E OF THE AREA. PREVAILING WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSH INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. THE SAL
SHOULD LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, LATEST LONG
RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE HINTING AT AN EARLIER RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE E CONUS AND WEAKENING THE HIGH
PRESSURE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALSO HELPS IN ENHANCING A LITTLE THE
OVERALL SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN MOISTURE
FILTERING INTO SOFLO AND POPS/WX JUMPING BACK INTO THE 40-60%
RANGE.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WON'T CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SATURDAY SO FAR BEING THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
INTRUSION. LATEST NBM CAME WITH UP TO 70% POPS/SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTERIOR AND EASTERN SOFLO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEA
BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP EACH DAY AND DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER
CONVECTION.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL HIT THE
MID-UPPER 90S EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL BE EXPLORED
EACH DAY. LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND TAKE ACTION WHEN
YOU SEE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. FOR MORE ON
WHAT YOU CAN DO TO PREPARE FOR AND MITIGATE HEAT ILLNESS, VISIT
READY.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
VFR WITH L/V FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z. SE FLOW AROUND
10KT WILL ESTABLISH AT THE ATL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE
APF WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE GULF BREEZE.
VCTS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES PUSH
INLAND. L/V FLOW RETURNS THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON AS THE GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 96 80 95 79 / 30 20 50 20
WEST KENDALL 96 77 96 77 / 40 20 50 10
OPA-LOCKA 97 80 97 79 / 20 20 50 20
HOMESTEAD 95 79 95 79 / 30 10 40 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 95 81 95 80 / 20 20 50 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 95 80 95 80 / 20 20 60 30
PEMBROKE PINES 98 81 97 81 / 20 20 50 20
WEST PALM BEACH 95 79 95 78 / 20 20 70 20
BOCA RATON 93 80 93 79 / 20 20 60 30
NAPLES 94 79 92 79 / 10 20 30 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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