318
FXUS62 KMFL 160812
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
412 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 408 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
- HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-108 POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS DURING EXTENDED PERIODS
OUTDOORS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORING INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
- ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TODAY HASN'T CHANGED MUCH IN LATEST GUIDANCE,
EXCEPT FOR NBM AND GFS SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE POOL AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE REGION. THIS SEEMS TO MARK
THE EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE/MID LVL TROUGHINESS LINGERING AROUND
MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHILE THE SAL
INFLUENCE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOFLO FOR ONE MORE DAY. 00Z MFL
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP BELOW NORMALS PWATS IN THE 1.4-1.7" RANGE.
MEANWHILE, WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER EACH SIDE OF THE
STATE, WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ATL HIGH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
PENINSULA. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE FLOW, MAINLY FROM THE SE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST, AND
GENERALLY NNW OVER THE GULF COAST. SEA BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN BECOME
DOMINANT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LATEST HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS INSIST IN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING NEAR OR OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BUT POPS/WX COVERAGE
OVERALL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
PREVAILING OVER THE AREA. MIXED-LAYER(MLCAPE) IN THE 500-1000 J/KG,
LOWER DCAPE VALUES (300-500 J/KG), AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -6C AMONG
OTHER PARAMETERS POINT AT A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS.
HOWEVER, ONE THREAT TO KEEP IN MIND WOULD BE THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE
OF ANY STORM THAT MAY FORM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
ONCE AGAIN, HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS WILL BE THE HEADLINE FOR TODAY,
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO OR AT ADVISORY LEVELS. LESS CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO HIT THE
MID-UPPER 90S AND HI VALUES IN THE 105-108 RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT, FOCUSING ON COASTAL METRO AREAS
AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID RISKING
HEAT ILLNESS IMPACTS BY REMAINING HYDRATED AND IN COOL LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO BEGINS TO EVOLVE RATHER QUICKLY
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
THE ONSET OF A SURGE IN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. CURRENTLY, NHC IS MONITORING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
OVER THE NE GULF WATERS, WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR SOFLO BEING
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
THE MODEL TREND TOWARDS A QUICKER RECOVERY OF THE AIR MASS FOR THE
WEEKEND HAS NOW BETTER INTRA-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH INSTABILITY AND
CHANCES OF RAIN SURGING ACROSS SOFLO AS THE SUPPRESSION FROM THE
DEPARTING SAL ALLOWS FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE MID
LEVELS. AS THE MID-LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, AND REGARDLESS OF THE
EVOLUTION OF THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE GULF, MODELS SHOW
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE, A MORE ROBUST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHES AND ENHANCES THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, MODEL CAPE/DCAPE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
2K/1K J/KG RESPECTIVELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH PWATS BACK
INTO THE 2.0-2.3" RANGE. THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE GOOD SUPPORT FOR
STRONGER, TALLER STORMS ESPECIALLY WITH SEA BREEZES AND BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. HIGHEST POPS/WX COVERAGE WILL REACH THE 60-70% EACH
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS. MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THEN SHOWERS AND STORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
DESPITE THE SPIKE IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL WILL BE EXPLORED EACH DAY. LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU SEE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION
AND HEAT STROKE. FOR MORE ON WHAT YOU CAN DO TO PREPARE FOR AND
MITIGATE HEAT ILLNESS, VISIT READY.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
VFR WITH L/V FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z. SE FLOW AROUND
10KT WILL ESTABLISH AT THE ATL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE
APF WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE GULF BREEZE.
VCTS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES PUSH
INLAND. L/V FLOW RETURNS THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, WHILE A WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
TODAY AND TOMORROW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE WEEKEND. BRIEF PERIODS OF
ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
FORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 96 80 95 79 / 20 20 60 20
WEST KENDALL 96 77 95 76 / 20 20 60 10
OPA-LOCKA 97 80 96 79 / 20 20 70 20
HOMESTEAD 95 79 94 79 / 10 10 50 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 95 81 94 80 / 10 20 70 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 95 81 94 79 / 20 20 70 20
PEMBROKE PINES 98 81 97 80 / 20 20 70 20
WEST PALM BEACH 95 79 94 78 / 20 20 80 30
BOCA RATON 93 80 93 79 / 20 20 70 30
NAPLES 94 79 91 79 / 0 20 40 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ068>070-072-074-168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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