568
FXUS62 KMFL 161939
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
339 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 323 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
- HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-108 POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS DURING EXTENDED PERIODS
OUTDOORS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORING INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
- ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
A FAIRLY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY AS
OUR ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A PLUME OF
LINGERING SAHARAN DUST. DESPITE THIS RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT,
THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING DATA TODAY REVEALS HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH PWATS OF 1.78 INCHES. THIS MAY BE A RESULT OF
A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT IN WINDS, INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER INDICATION OF A MORE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IS THE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
MUCH OF THE CIRRUS DECK IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL INTRODUCE A STRONGER
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY,
ALLOWING THE DEVELOPING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO STAY PINNED CLOSER TO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HREF GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
POPS ONLY HOVERING AROUND THE 20-30% RANGE. THESE LOWER POPS ARE
LIKELY THE RESULT OF ALL THE AMBIENT DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM THE
SAL. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST METROS ALONG COLLIDING SEA BREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
WITH SURFACE CAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, IF A FEW STORMS WERE TO GET STRONG ENOUGH, THE PRESENCE OF
SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG DOWNBURST
SIGNATURES. SINCE 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER
SIDE, THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM EDT FOR THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS AND COLLIER COUNTY, WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD PEAK
IN THE 105 TO 108 F DEGREE RANGE. WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK WILL
CONTINUE FOR TOMORROW, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TO SEE
WHETHER ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF HEAT ILLNESS. LIMIT YOUR TIME
OUTDOORS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE, AND STAY PLENTY
HYDRATED.
THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES. TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF, WHICH MAY BEGIN TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. THE GREATER MOISTURE
LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION, HOWEVER, HREF GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A MODEST INCREASE IN REGIONAL PWATS (INTO THE 1.6 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE). A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, MAINLY FAVORING INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN METROS. ONCE AGAIN, THE STRONGER WESTERLY
SFC FLOW WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE
COAST, INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS FOR BROWARD, PALM BEACH, AND
DADE COUNTIES. HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH EACH
THUNDERSTORM.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE BREAKING DOWN OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE
TREND THAT MANY SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORING IS THE DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRENGTHENING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF, DEEPENING A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN
FLORIDA. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME THAT THE THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
(SAL) ALSO BEGINS TO LOSE SOME INFLUENCE OVER FLORIDA, WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF DUST LOOKING TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE TUTT COULD DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM, BUT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING STRONG OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, THE WIND PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. OVERALL, RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FUNNEL
NORTHWARDS ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST, WHERE PWATS MAY CLIMB
INTO THE 2.3 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE (FOR TAMPA AREA). HOWEVER, CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY BE
UNDER SOME SORT OF DRY SLOT, WITH PWATS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW AVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (FOR MIAMI AREA). THIS COULD BE A RESULT
OF SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING SOME LINGERING SAHARAN DUST FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. IF THE UPPER LOW DISTURBANCE WERE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
TREND STRONGER, SOUTH FLORIDA WOULD LIKELY SEE A SURGE OF MOISTURE
AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY INDICATING ABOUT A 20%
CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR CENTRAL
FLORIDA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN GULF DISTURBANCE. AT THIS
TIME, MOST GUIDANCE HAS THIS DISTURBANCE MEANDERING NEAR THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE EJECTING
OUT EAST BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WITH THIS CURRENT FORECAST, THERE
WILL BE A NORTH TO SOUTH POP GRADIENT, FAVORING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. POPS THEN DECREASE FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ALONG THE PENINSULA. WITH INCREASED FORCING AND ASCENT
ALOFT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER, QPF CLUSTER ENSEMBLES KEEP THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA, CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE. STORM
ACTIVITY IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO SEA BREEZE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTING, HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THAT THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS STARTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME SITES MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
LIGHT WESTERLY AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE SHIFTS WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY. A GULF BREEZE
WILL SHIFT WINDS WEST AT KAPF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST EASTERN SITES. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, WHILE A WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
TODAY AND TOMORROW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE WEEKEND. BRIEF PERIODS OF
ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
FORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 95 79 92 / 20 60 20 30
WEST KENDALL 77 95 77 93 / 10 50 20 30
OPA-LOCKA 80 96 79 93 / 20 60 20 40
HOMESTEAD 79 94 79 92 / 10 40 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 94 80 91 / 30 60 20 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 94 80 91 / 30 60 30 40
PEMBROKE PINES 81 96 80 94 / 30 60 20 40
WEST PALM BEACH 79 94 78 92 / 30 70 20 60
BOCA RATON 80 92 79 90 / 30 70 30 50
NAPLES 79 91 78 90 / 20 40 60 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ068>070-072-074-
168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP/AD
LONG TERM....NMP
AVIATION...NMP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page