145
FXUS62 KMFL 170816
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
416 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 412 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 POSSIBLE TODAY. TAKE APPROPRIATE
PRECAUTIONS DURING EXTENDED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORING INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.
- ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, WHICH ALLOWS
FOR DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO SOFLO. LATEST NHC
FORECAST HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NE GULF. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE
OUTCOME, NBM/GFS SHOW AGREEMENT IN A DEVELOPING TROUGH AROUND THE
EASTERN GULF AND WEST FLORIDA, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS IT MIGRATES NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PENINSULA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH PWATS
EXPECTED TO JUMP BACK INTO THE 2.0-2.3" RANGE, ALONG WITH
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BECOMING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNSTABLE.
CAPE/DCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 2000/1000 J/KG RESPECTIVELY,
ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES. THIS OVERALL SETUP WILL PROVIDE
ADDED BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
AND HEAVY RAIN EACH DAY. CAM AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST
SOME WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH, WHICH MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER CELL
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND REPEATED BOUTS
OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE SAME LOCATION.
OVERALL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW, WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE CLOSE OR RIGHT OVER THE EASTERN METRO
AREAS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. POPS/WX COVERAGE JUMPS INTO THE 60-70% RANGE WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS.
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS CONTINUE TODAY, ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS OVER THE
LAKE REGION MAY COOL DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE METRO AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE BEFORE THE ACTIVE WEATHER DEVELOPS, ALLOWING FOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO AGAIN APPROACH OR HIT ADVISORY LEVELS (105-110F RANGE). A
HEAT ADVISORY IS ONCE AGAIN IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT,
FOCUSING ON COASTAL METRO AREAS AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR COLLIER
COUNTY. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID RISKING HEAT ILLNESS IMPACTS BY
REMAINING HYDRATED AND IN COOL LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON PEAK HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A TROUGH AND
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED LOW LINGERING AROUND THE EASTERN GULF AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA. BUT THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOFLO SEEMS TO BEGIN TO
REBOUND FROM THE WET CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAX POPS/WX COVERAGE ON LATEST NBM ARE NOW COMING IN THE
30-40% THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH TUESDAY AS THE DRIEST
DAY.
SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL REMAIN AS THE FOCAL
POINTS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED GOOD SUPPORT FOR STRONGER, TALLER STORMS ESPECIALLY WITH
SEA BREEZES AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DESPITE THE SPIKE IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL WILL BE EXPLORED EACH DAY. LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU SEE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION
AND HEAT STROKE. FOR MORE ON WHAT YOU CAN DO TO PREPARE FOR AND
MITIGATE HEAT ILLNESS, VISIT READY.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VFR AND L/V FLOW CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z.
A GULF BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS WEST AT KAPF AFTER 16Z, WHILE SSE
FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE EAST COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PROB30S IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, WHILE A WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
ALL LOCAL WATERS BY SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE WEEKEND. BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 95 79 92 80 / 60 20 30 0
WEST KENDALL 95 76 93 77 / 60 20 30 0
OPA-LOCKA 96 79 93 79 / 60 20 30 0
HOMESTEAD 95 79 92 80 / 40 10 20 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 94 80 92 81 / 60 30 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 95 80 92 80 / 60 30 30 10
PEMBROKE PINES 97 80 94 81 / 60 20 30 0
WEST PALM BEACH 94 78 92 79 / 70 30 40 10
BOCA RATON 93 79 91 79 / 60 30 40 10
NAPLES 91 78 90 79 / 30 30 50 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ068>070-072-074-168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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