206
FXUS62 KMFL 180510
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
110 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS DURING
EXTENDED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FAVORING INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
- ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONTINUES
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST IS HELPING INDUCE A WESTERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH A COUNTERACTING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SLOWLY TRYING TO PUSH
INLAND AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
DEMONSTRATES A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WHICH
HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORYLINE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE WEEK WITH THE
LINGERING PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST. RAP GUIDANCE, HOWEVER,
SUGGESTS THAT OUR ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE MOISTENING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE FAVORABLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND PWATS CLIMB TO THE RANGE OF 1.8-2.1". IN COMBINATION WITH
SUBSTANTIAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING DUE TO THE NEARBY UPPER LOW OVER
THE GULF, HIGH SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF OVER 3500 J/KG, AND A
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST/PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE, WE
ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED A
FAIRLY LARGE DCAPE VALUE OF 1163 J/KG IN DIRECT ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SAHARAN DUST WE HAVE IN PLACE. WITH STEEP 0-3KM LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED TO STEADILY RISE TO 7.5-8.5 DEGREES C/KM DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY, DOWNBURST SIGNATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN ACT AS
THE LIKELY AND MOST COMMON HAZARD WITH MOST COLLAPSING CORES,
PRODUCING STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN
THAT THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WE CANNOT OMIT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL HAIL WITH THE RELATIVELY MODEST MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
AROUND 6 DEGREES C/KM AND JUST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, BUT STILL
FAIRLY WEAK, FLOW ALOFT OF AROUND 20 KTS. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH MOST OF TODAY'S CELLS.
IN ADDITION TO THIS CONVECTIVE REGIME, HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OUR EASTERN METROS AND
COLLIER COUNTY WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE 105-110
DEGREE RANGE. MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW ALL THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT YOURSELF AND THOSE AROUND YOU FROM THIS ELEVATED HEAT
RISK.
SFC FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF OUR REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE WEST,
GIVING WAY TO MORE OF A TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL-HIGH INFLUENCE. THE
BEST FORCING WITH OUR UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOSTLY LOCATED NORTH
OF OUR REGION AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AS THE FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THIS GENERAL VICINITY. SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, THIS BUOYANT MECHANISM COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR GULF COAST LOCALES TO KICK OFF
SATURDAY. SUFFICIENT REGIONAL MOISTURE AND MARINE DMAX WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO COEXISTING OVER OUR ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST METROS AS THEY RIDE OUR SFC FLOW OUT OF THE SSE, IN
WHAT WILL BE MORE OF A SUMMERLIKE MORNING ROUTINE. THE MORNING
CONVECTION WILL BE SUCCEEDED BY ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIOD WITH PLENTIFUL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OUR UPPER LOW LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. CONCURRENTLY, MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT YET
ANOTHER INTRUSION OF SAHARAN DUST FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA GIVEN LOW-LEVEL
TRANSPORTS BEING OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLANK OF OUR GULF UPPER LOW. AS A RESULT, POPS WILL BE ON THE
LOWER END OF THE SCALE WHERE THIS DUST IS MOST ABUNDANT,
INCREASING AS WE HEAD FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE LAKE WHERE HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND THE DUST WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT ON CONVECTION. HEAT WILL REMAIN AN ONGOING
CONCERN AS HAZARDOUS HEAT INDICES COULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEARING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO AREAS. MAKE SURE TO
LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTDOORS DURING THE HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY, WHEN
HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB AGAIN INTO THE 105-110
DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A TROUGH AND
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED LOW LINGERING AROUND THE EASTERN GULF AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA. BUT THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOFLO SEEMS TO BEGIN TO
REBOUND FROM THE WET CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAX POPS/WX COVERAGE ON LATEST NBM ARE NOW COMING IN THE
30-40% THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH TUESDAY AS THE DRIEST
DAY.
SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL REMAIN AS THE FOCAL
POINTS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED GOOD SUPPORT FOR STRONGER, TALLER STORMS ESPECIALLY WITH
SEA BREEZES AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DESPITE THE SPIKE IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL WILL BE EXPLORED EACH DAY. LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU SEE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION
AND HEAT STROKE. FOR MORE ON WHAT YOU CAN DO TO PREPARE FOR AND
MITIGATE HEAT ILLNESS, VISIT READY.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. SE WINDS
EXPECTED AROUND 10-15 KT FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AND SSW WINDS
AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHRA WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER
11-12Z WITH VCTS LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 15Z AS WELL. ANY ON
SITE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY GIVEN BRISK WIND FLOW. HOWEVER,
THIS COULD RESULT IN SHORT DURATION RESTRICTIONS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS BY SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 3 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS. BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 80 93 80 / 20 10 30 0
WEST KENDALL 92 77 93 77 / 20 10 30 0
OPA-LOCKA 93 80 94 80 / 20 10 30 0
HOMESTEAD 92 80 93 80 / 20 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 81 92 81 / 20 20 30 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 80 92 80 / 20 20 40 0
PEMBROKE PINES 93 81 95 81 / 20 10 30 0
WEST PALM BEACH 91 78 93 79 / 20 10 50 10
BOCA RATON 90 79 91 80 / 20 20 40 10
NAPLES 90 78 91 80 / 60 40 50 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...REDMAN
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