642
FXUS62 KMFL 181050
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
650 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 649 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES TODAY. WHILE
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, DEHYDRATION CAN OCCUR. THEREFORE,
MAKE SURE TO STAY AWARE OF HEAT ILLNESS SIGNS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY,
FAVORING INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY DEPICT THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THAT IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL HANG ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW POSITIVE VORTICITY
IMPULSES TO ADVECT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND PROVIDE SOME EXTRA
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADDITION TO THE SEA BREEZES. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S., AND THUS IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO
GET ANY CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN IT IS NOW. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW-
LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BEING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY, THE ATLANTIC AND GULF BREEZES WILL BE ABLE TO ADVANCE
FAR ENOUGH INLAND THAT THE BRUNT OF CONVECTION TODAY AND ON SUNDAY
SHOULD FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR REGIONS AND LIKELY CLOSER TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY CAN STILL DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE COASTS EARLY ON IN THE DAY BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND, BUT
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. ADDITIONAL COASTAL
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE VIA OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DEVELOPMENT AND COLLISIONS.
ON ANOTHER NOTE, WHILE NOT AS STOUT AS EARLIER THIS PAST WEEK WE
WILL STILL HAVE A WEAKER SAHARAN AIR LAYER OVER THE AREA THAT CAN
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH VIA AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.
HOWEVER, AS WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE, THIS GENERALLY INCREASES LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH CAN RESULT IN A FEW DEEPER CORES FORMING IF PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING CAN BREAK THROUGH THE 'CAP'. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY THAN THE LAST FEW, SO THIS
MAY LIMIT THE RISK OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO FORMING BUT IN GENERAL
AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM VIA WIND DOWNBURSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS WEEKEND. SUNDAY HAS A HIGHER CHANCE OF THIS DUE TO
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE MID 90S, DESPITE DRIER AIR CAUSING
PWATS TO FALL BELOW 1.5" WHICH WOULD BE BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SOME DRIER AIR
INFLUENCES THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS, MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND BUT THEY WILL STILL HOVER BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES.
THEREFORE, PRECAUTIONS VIA HYDRATION AND COOLING BREAKS ARE STILL
HIGHLY ADVISED AS IT CAN FEEL MUCH HOTTER IN DIRECT SUNLIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO
BE A LENGTHY PERIOD THAT LACKS ANY IMPACTFUL SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO EXPAND BACK OVER THE REGION, BUT OTHERWISE THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE EXTREMELY WEAK AND THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE CONDUCTORS WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. BECAUSE OF THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE, SEA BREEZES WILL BE ABLE TO ADVANCE INLAND EACH DAY AND
RESULT IN HIGHEST POPS OVER INLAND/INTERIOR AREAS. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DRIER AIR MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION IS
PROJECTED CURRENTLY TO LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL, WHICH IS
LEADING TO RAIN CHANCES BEING MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL (15-30%) EVEN
ON A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY.
ONE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLES THAT IS
WORTH MONITORING TRENDS FOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS A WESTWARD
MOVING TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THIS FEATURE
ENHANCES OR SHIFTS IN TRACK AT ALL, THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME INCREASED RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, BUT WE WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IT.
OTHERWISE, WITH THE LIKELY LOWER AMOUNT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, HEAT WILL BE
THE HIGHEST IMPACTFUL CONCERN AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY. AS A RESULT, HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL
BE ASSESSED DAILY. IT IS ADVISED TO CONTINUE TO LIMIT STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE. FOR MORE ON WHAT YOU CAN
DO TO PREPARE FOR AND MITIGATE HEAT ILLNESS, VISIT READY.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SW FL. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND
ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, SE WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE GULF WATERS.
SEAS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED AT 2 FEET OR LESS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 91 80 93 81 / 20 10 20 0
WEST KENDALL 92 77 93 77 / 20 0 20 0
OPA-LOCKA 93 80 94 80 / 20 10 20 0
HOMESTEAD 92 80 93 80 / 20 0 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 81 92 81 / 20 20 20 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 81 93 81 / 20 20 20 0
PEMBROKE PINES 93 81 95 81 / 20 10 20 0
WEST PALM BEACH 91 79 93 79 / 30 20 30 10
BOCA RATON 90 80 91 80 / 30 20 20 10
NAPLES 90 78 91 80 / 70 30 50 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CMF
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