233
FXUS62 KMFL 182256
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
656 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 655 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES TODAY. WHILE
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, DEHYDRATION CAN OCCUR. THEREFORE,
MAKE SURE TO STAY AWARE OF HEAT ILLNESS SIGNS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY,
FAVORING INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS ALL
COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH THE BULK OF THE STORM ACTIVITY
FOCUSING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST IN COLLIER COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL-LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
SUPPLYING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
IS PROVIDING ASCENT AND FORCING FOR SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SEVERAL TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED UP TO AN ESTIMATED 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG
CERTAIN SPOTS ON THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST. AS A RESULT, THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST, WHERE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE URBAN FLOODING CONCERNS FOR POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS. WHILE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE, THE EASTERN
METRO AREAS HAVE SEEN A A FEW TRAINING STORMS AS WELL, BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE AND FAST STORM MOTIONS, RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
IMPACTFUL.
WITH THE ENVIRONMENT ALREADY BEING SO WORKED OVER FROM MORNING
CONVECTION, AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER KEEPING THINGS ON THE COOLER
SIDE, CAMS ARE HINTING THAT MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD START
TRENDING DOWN BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD
HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES,
PARTICULARLY OVER INTERIOR REGIONS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LAST STORM
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEA BREEZE
INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EVERGLADES THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO TREND MORE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY, REDUCING
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND SHIFTING THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING AND
ASCENT MORE OFFSHORE. THE CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
FURTHER WEST OVER THE GULF AS WELL, WITH PWATS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY, WHICH
WILL FILTER IN A DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOME INCREASED CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST AS WELL. THIS WILL
LOWER PWATS TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT,
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 25 AND 35% ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH HIGHER
CHANCES OF 40 TO 50% FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A TAD LESS THAN THE LAST FEW
AFTERNOONS DUE TO THE INCREASED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNNIER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO
THE MID 90S. OVERALL, WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK FOR URBAN AREAS.
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 F. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT PROPER HYDRATION AND
COOLING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO
BE A LENGTHY PERIOD THAT LACKS ANY IMPACTFUL SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO EXPAND BACK OVER THE REGION, BUT OTHERWISE THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE EXTREMELY WEAK AND THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE CONDUCTORS WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. BECAUSE OF THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE, SEA BREEZES WILL BE ABLE TO ADVANCE INLAND EACH DAY AND
RESULT IN HIGHEST POPS OVER INLAND/INTERIOR AREAS. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DRIER AIR MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION IS
PROJECTED CURRENTLY TO LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL, WHICH IS
LEADING TO RAIN CHANCES BEING MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL (15-30%) EVEN
ON A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY.
ONE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLES THAT IS
WORTH MONITORING TRENDS FOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS A WESTWARD
MOVING TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THIS FEATURE
ENHANCES OR SHIFTS IN TRACK AT ALL, THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME INCREASED RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, BUT WE WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IT.
OTHERWISE, WITH THE LIKELY LOWER AMOUNT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, HEAT WILL BE
THE HIGHEST IMPACTFUL CONCERN AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY. AS A RESULT, HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL
BE ASSESSED DAILY. IT IS ADVISED TO CONTINUE TO LIMIT STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE. FOR MORE ON WHAT YOU CAN
DO TO PREPARE FOR AND MITIGATE HEAT ILLNESS, VISIT READY.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW
MORNING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN METRO TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT
KAPF FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE GULF WATERS.
SEAS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED AT 2 FEET OR LESS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 93 81 93 / 10 20 10 20
WEST KENDALL 77 93 78 94 / 10 20 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 80 94 80 95 / 10 20 10 30
HOMESTEAD 80 93 80 93 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 92 81 93 / 20 20 10 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 92 81 93 / 20 20 10 30
PEMBROKE PINES 81 95 81 95 / 10 20 10 30
WEST PALM BEACH 79 92 79 93 / 20 20 10 50
BOCA RATON 80 91 80 92 / 30 20 10 40
NAPLES 79 91 80 91 / 30 60 50 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...NMP
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