339
FXUS62 KMFL 192243
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
643 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN GULF. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACTS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT WILL
BE MOVING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT CONTAINING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- HEAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN HEADING INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK AS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
AND IT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA, THE EXTREME OUTER BANDS WILL BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COMBINATION
WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED
THIS AFTERNOON, IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. WITH
SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN, DCAPE VALUES REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED AND RANGE BETWEEN 900
AND 1100 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION, ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER
THE GULF WATERS AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE OUTER BANDS
OF TD TWO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST.
WHILE SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW, MID LEVEL
RIDGING OFF TO THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OVER THE REGION
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO MEANDERS AND DRIFTS NORTH NORTHWESTWARD
IN THE EASTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH WESTWARD TOWARDS
THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ONGOING HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO THE EXTREME OUTER BANDS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER, AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MORE SEA BREEZE DRIVEN AND WILL GRADUALLY FOCUS OVER THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHERE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL COLLIDE. HEAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ON
MONDAY AS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE A LENGTHY PERIOD THAT LACKS ANY
IMPACTFUL SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WHEN DISSECTING THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO EXPAND BACK OVER THE REGION, WHILE AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH SITS OVER THE NORTHEAST US AND A STOUT RIDGE SITS
ACROSS THE WESTERN US. NEITHER OF THE LATTER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BUDGE OUT OF THEIR POSITIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN
INCREASED JET DYNAMICS OVER THE MIDWEST STATES CAUSE A DEEPENING OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MAY PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARDS BUT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE NORTHERN FLORIDA REGION. THEREFORE, THE OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN WILL BE WEAK AND RESULT IN THE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
CONDUCTORS BEING DIURNAL HEATING AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
BECAUSE OF THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE, SEA BREEZES
WILL BE ABLE TO ADVANCE INLAND EACH DAY AND RESULT IN HIGHEST POPS
OVER INLAND/INTERIOR AREAS. DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING WEAK CAPPING
INVERSIONS IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS WELL, WHICH WOULD
CREATE A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT LEADS TO LESS RAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THUS, RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY MUCH LOWER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (15-30%).
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, ONE FEATURE
THAT HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED THAT IS WORTH MONITORING TRENDS FOR OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS A WESTWARD MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THIS FEATURE ENHANCES OR SHIFTS
IN TRACK AT ALL, THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INCREASED RAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, BUT
WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, WITH THE LIKELY LOWER AMOUNT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, HEAT WILL BE
THE HIGHEST IMPACTFUL CONCERN AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY. AS A RESULT, HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL
BE ASSESSED DAILY. IT IS ADVISED TO CONTINUE TO LIMIT STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE. FOR MORE ON WHAT YOU CAN
DO TO PREPARE FOR AND MITIGATE HEAT ILLNESS, VISIT READY.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SSE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
12Z MONDAY. AT KAPF, SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING, AND THEN ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEK AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO MEANDERS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.
SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
FEET THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 93 81 93 / 10 20 0 10
WEST KENDALL 78 94 78 94 / 10 20 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 81 94 81 95 / 10 30 10 10
HOMESTEAD 81 93 80 93 / 10 20 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 92 82 92 / 10 30 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 93 81 93 / 10 30 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 82 95 82 95 / 10 30 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 79 93 80 93 / 10 40 20 10
BOCA RATON 81 91 81 91 / 10 30 20 10
NAPLES 81 91 80 92 / 50 50 20 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CWC
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