581
FNUS72 KMFL 221023
FWSMFL
SPOT FORECAST FOR PEPPER RANCH PRESERVE...CONSERVATION COLLIER PROGRAM /COLLIER COUNTY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
623 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON JULY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (305) 229-4522, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CALM WINDS NEAR THE BURN LOCATION. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON, FOCUSING ALONG THE GULF BREEZE. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURN AREA,
UP TO 60% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTING,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH CAN LEAD TO ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.
STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EARLY EVENING BUT WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 16 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 37 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 56 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 37
DECREASING TO 21 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........8 9 9 2 7 19 14 15 30 36 49
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC LKY LKY
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 50 60 60
TEMP............74 76 80 86 88 90 92 93 93 93 93
RH..............93 97 91 75 70 64 60 56 56 56 58
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SE S
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 5 6 5 5 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 9 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.5 1.5 2.8 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.0 3.0 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 8 10 12 10 9 7 7 6 6
DISPERSION IDX..3 7 16 37 55 57 54 40 34 24 17
LVORI...........7 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....10 DECREASING TO 3 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........38 37 48 30 29 29 41 18 12 11 15 13
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 30 20 20 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............90 88 86 82 80 79 78 77 77 76 75 75
RH..............64 68 72 82 85 88 91 90 90 90 94 94
20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SE SE SW E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.8 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SE SE E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
DISPERSION IDX..12 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
LVORI...........2 3 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 53.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........10 11 11 11 11 35 27 27 24 23 28 37
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 40
TEMP............74 73 76 80 86 88 90 91 93 93 93 93
RH..............93 97 97 91 75 70 64 62 56 56 56 56
20 FT WIND DIR..E NE NE E E E E E E NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 3 3 5 6 6 6 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 6 7 8 10 12 13 14 14 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 3.7 4.6 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.4 4.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
DISPERSION IDX..3 3 6 12 23 38 46 50 50 51 56 50
LVORI...........7 8 8 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
FORECASTER...PORCELLI
REQUESTED BY...CHRISTAL SEGURA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2617935.0/MFL
.DELDT 07/22/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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