754
FXUS62 KMFL 300601
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
201 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 149 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 106-110F, MAINLY FOR COASTAL METRO AREAS
AND INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL HIT THE LOW-
MID 90S.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND THE LAKE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LARGELY FOCUSED OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE
REGION. THE 18Z MFL SOUNDING AND RECENT ACARS DATA SHOW A
RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING
IN THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING TO ANCHOR OVER THE REGION, THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LIMITED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. FOR
TOMORROW, LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING AN
OVERALL DRIER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DURING THE DAY WILL DRIVE HIGHER DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. THE NBM'S 50TH PERCENTILE (MOST
LIKELY) HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW HIGHLIGHTS PEAK
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST
COAST METRO URBAN CORE, WITH LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST. WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND LACK OF CONVECTION, THE FORECAST
COULD TREND CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE, WHICH FEATURES THE
POTENTIAL OF PEAK VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS INLAND SUBURBS OF
THE EAST COAST METRO. THESE VALUES COULD COME CLOSE TO BREAK
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE DATE. MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURE VALUES COULD REACH THE 106-110 F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY
INCREASING MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE AREA, WHILE BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF REGION. MEANWHILE, SFC OBS
AND MODEL ANALYSES DESCRIBE A SEMI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE SE CONUS, WITH A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS CLUSTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WHILE SOFLO CONTINUES TO RECEIVE THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR,
ENHANCED BY ADDITIONAL SAL DUST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TODAY AND BRING SOME GUSTY PERIODS IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
PER LATEST ENSEMBLES AND HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS, THURSDAY SEEM TO BE THE
DRIEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. FOR TODAY, CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
HIGHEST AROUND THE LAKE REGION, SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED POOL OF MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. POPS/WX COVERAGE OF 40-
50% ARE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES, WHILE A MUCH DRIER
PROFILE WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF SOFLO; GENERALLY IN THE 10-30%
RANGE. DECREASING FORECAST PARAMETERS LIKE PWATS, POSSIBLY DOWN TO
1.5-1.6", AND DCAPE BELOW 700 J/KG, WILL COMBINE WITH STRONGER MID-
LVL CAPPING DUE TO THE INCREASING SAL INTRUSION IN ORDER TO
ESTABLISH A SIGNIFICANT SUPPRESSION OF DAYTIME STORM DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THE
PERSISTING WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING, MAINLY WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HIT THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOFLO, AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 106-110F RANGE. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ABOUT EXPERIENCING DURATIONS OF THOSE VALUES, THEREFORE,
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED, MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL METRO AREAS.
MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S NEAR THE COASTS
AND LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST THEIR SOLUTIONS AS WE APPROACH
THE WEEKEND PERIOD. AND WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY,
IT SEEMS THE CONSENSUS IS TRENDING TOWARDS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A
RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
AN UPPER-LVL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE E/SE CONUS, WITH A SERIES
OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES TRAVELING ALONG ITS BASE. THESE FEATURES WILL
PUSH SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA, MAINLY
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY, AND PROMOTE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE SAL CAPPING,
WHICH WILL REMAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN-MOST AREAS OF
SOFLO STARTING ON SATURDAY. LATEST NBM FOLLOWS THE REST OF GUIDANCE
WITH A SURGE IN POPS INTO THE 60-70% RANGE NORTH OF I-75, AND 30-50%
ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY, AND WITH INCREASING SUPPORT FOR STRONG
AFTERNOON STORMS. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW-LVL FLOW ADJUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S, AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 70S OVER INLAND SOUTH FL
TO AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AT DJT WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
L/V WINDS WILL BECOME SW AROUND 10KT AFTER 15Z, WITH GUSTY PERIODS
AT APF. L/V FLOW RETURNS AFTER 00-01Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. AN SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
WATERS STARTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS. IN GENERAL, SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2 FT, BUT A SURGE TO 4-5 FT IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY UNTIL THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 94 78 94 79 / 20 0 20 0
WEST KENDALL 94 75 94 75 / 10 0 20 0
OPA-LOCKA 95 78 95 79 / 20 0 30 0
HOMESTEAD 93 77 93 78 / 10 0 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 79 92 79 / 10 0 30 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 94 79 93 79 / 10 0 40 10
PEMBROKE PINES 95 79 94 79 / 20 0 30 10
WEST PALM BEACH 94 77 93 77 / 20 10 60 10
BOCA RATON 94 77 93 78 / 20 10 50 10
NAPLES 91 80 91 79 / 10 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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