920
FXUS62 KMFL 300815
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 408 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 106-110F, MAINLY FOR COASTAL METRO AREAS
AND INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL HIT THE LOW-
MID 90S.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND THE LAKE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
PREVAILING DURING THE SHORT TERM. MID-LVL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA, WHILE BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF REGION SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE, THE SEMI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO NORTHERN
FLORIDA, AND KEEP A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PENINSULA TODAY. HOWEVER, LATEST SOLUTIONS KEEP A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA,
WITH MOST OF SOFLO REMAINING FAIRLY DRY, ALONG WITH LINGERING SAL
DUST LOWERING POPS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO
AGAIN BRING SOME GUSTY PERIODS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST NBM, HIGH-RES AND GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW TODAY AS BEING
THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH A TIGHT VERTICAL GRADIENT IN
CHANCES OF RAIN FROM SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF I75, AND BETWEEN 20-60%
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE LAKE REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RESIDE AROUND GLADES AND NORTHERN HENDRY COUNTIES WHERE SOME OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESIDE. ESTIMATED SBCAPE/MUCAPE AROUND THOSE COUNTIES WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 2K/2.5 J/KG RESPECTIVELY, AND PWATS AROUND 2", WHICH
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WEATHER CHANCES DROP
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE REST OF SOFLO REMAINING GENERALLY DRY.
FOR FRIDAY, UPPER-LVL TROUGHINESS WILL FURTHER DEEPEN OVER THE E/SE
CONUS, WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES TRAVELING
ALONG ITS BASE PASSING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE ACROSS SOFLO IN RESPONSE, WITH MOST OF THE EAST COAST BACK
IN THE 30-50% CHANCE OF RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HIT THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF
SOFLO, WITH POSSIBLE UPPER 90S OVER SOME INLAND LOCATIONS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY AGAIN REACH THE 106-110F RANGE FOR WHICH A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT, MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL METRO AREAS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD CONSENSUS CONSENSUS IN HAVING A
RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN WITH MOISTURE SURGING ACROSS SOFLO.
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER-LVL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE E/SE CONUS, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPULSES TRAVELING ALONG ITS BASE. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALSO REMOVE THE SAL CAPPING OVER
SOFLO STARTING ON SATURDAY. NBM AND THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
GUIDANCE DEPICT A TREND OF INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN WITH A SURGE
IN POPS INTO THE 60-80% RANGE NORTH OF I-75, AND 40-60% ELSEWHERE ON
SATURDAY, AND WITH INCREASING SUPPORT FOR STRONG AFTERNOON STORMS.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS, THEN BECOMING EASTERLY
BY TUESDAY AS THE W ATL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FROM EASTERN/INTERIOR AREAS DURING
THE WEEKEND TO WESTERN AREAS BY MID WEEK. ALL IN ALL, AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM WITH MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE AREA AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LVL
SUPPORT FOR STRONGER STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S, AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 70S OVER INLAND SOUTH FL
TO AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AT DJT WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
L/V WINDS WILL BECOME SW AROUND 10KT AFTER 15Z, WITH GUSTY PERIODS
AT APF. L/V FLOW RETURNS AFTER 00-01Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH PERIODS OF WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20KT OVER THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS
AND GUSTY WINDS. IN GENERAL, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2
FT, WITH POSSIBLE 3 FT OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AT ALL BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 95 79 94 79 / 10 0 30 0
WEST KENDALL 94 75 94 75 / 10 0 30 0
OPA-LOCKA 96 78 95 79 / 10 0 30 10
HOMESTEAD 94 77 93 77 / 10 0 30 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 94 79 93 79 / 20 0 30 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 95 79 94 79 / 20 0 40 10
PEMBROKE PINES 95 79 94 79 / 10 0 30 10
WEST PALM BEACH 94 77 93 77 / 30 10 50 20
BOCA RATON 94 77 93 77 / 30 10 40 10
NAPLES 91 80 91 79 / 20 10 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ068>070-072-074-168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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