004
FXUS62 KMFL 310551
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
151 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 106-110F, MAINLY FOR COASTAL METRO AREAS
AND INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL HIT THE LOW-
MID 90S.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW AROUND THE LAKE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
FLORIDA WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACK END OF A POSITIVELY TILTED MID-
LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER, A
STOUT 594 DAM H5 HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER CUBA, KEEPING A STRONGER
INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN IN SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE,
A STALLING FRONT IS CURRENTLY CREEPING DOWN INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA,
COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS A STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE PENINSULA. IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA, WHERE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING, PWATS HAVE CLIMBED UP TO 2.3 TO 2.4
INCHES, WHICH IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MEANWHILE, RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SOUTH FLORIDA WILL STILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL). THIS DRIER
AIR SHOULD KEEP PWATS AROUND THE 1.6 TO 1.7 RANGE, WHICH IS IN THE
25TH TO 50TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO UNLIKE THE
PWATMAXXING ATMOSPHERE UP NORTH, DRIER AIR SHOULD HINDER SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (25% TO 40%) WILL BE AROUND THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION, CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE.
WITH A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH
NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN SEABOARD,
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE PINNED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR INHIBIT IT FROM FORMING AT
ALL, WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT FORCING FOR CONVECTION TODAY. OTHER
THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, WITH STORMS
LOOKING TO FOCUS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN, WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING, THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, MORE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
SEA BREEZE PUSHING FURTHER INLAND INTO THE METRO, LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP. OVERALL, THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STALLED FRONT, BUT
ACTIVITY COULD ZIPPER DOWN THE SEA-BREEZE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND
INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, WITH MANY AREAS SEEING
HEAT INDICES CLIMBING UP INTO THE 105 TO 108 F RANGE. AS A RESULT
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
REGARDLESS, THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK FOR MOST URBAN
LOCATIONS, AFFECTING ANYONE WITHOUT PROPER COOLING AND HYDRATION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION IS
CURRENTLY RIDING THE MONSOON HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL DIG SOUTH AND DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST, WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST STARTS TO BECOME A
LITTLE BIT MORE UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM TO START THE NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STARTING ON SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AT LEAST FOR THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, THIS
TROUGH WILL INDUCE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING AND ASCENT FOR STORMS. THIS FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA, KEEPING THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR
INCREASED CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD LIKELY SET UP ANOTHER
SITUATION WHERE THERE IS A NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE PENINSULA, WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND DRIER AIR HINDERING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE CURRENTLY SPLIT INTO TWO GENERAL SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE POSSIBLE MIDWEST UPPER LOW: A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM, AND A SLOWER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ABOUT
60% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT KEEPING
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTH. ABOUT 40% OF MEMBERS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW TRACKING FURTHER INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND SLOWER
MOVING. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY PROVIDE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE FOR STORMS IN SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE FOCUSES OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND MORE SOUTHERLY
AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER THAT, WINDS
MAY SHIFT EAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
EXPANDS WESTWARD.
TO SUM IT UP, IT'S A PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM DUE TO THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FOR SEVERAL FEATURES UPSTREAM.
IN GENERAL, POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS BETTER MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE
INTERACTION OF PERIPHERY MID-LEVEL SAL COULD POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK AND ISOLATED MAJOR
HEATRISK ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 19-20Z. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY OVER DJT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES FOR WHICH A PROB30 IS IN PLACE. THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS WILL CARRY VCTS AND WILL BE
UPDATED AS NECESSARY. APF HAS THE LOWEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
AS THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. L/V FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE W/SW AT AROUND 10KT
AFTER 15Z, THEN L/V AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH PERIODS OF WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20KT OVER THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS
AND GUSTY WINDS. IN GENERAL, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2
FT, WITH POSSIBLE 3 FT OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AT ALL BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 93 79 92 79 / 30 20 70 30
WEST KENDALL 94 75 92 75 / 30 10 60 20
OPA-LOCKA 95 78 93 79 / 30 20 70 30
HOMESTEAD 93 77 92 78 / 20 10 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 79 91 79 / 40 30 70 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 93 79 91 79 / 50 30 70 40
PEMBROKE PINES 93 79 92 80 / 40 30 70 30
WEST PALM BEACH 93 77 92 77 / 60 40 80 40
BOCA RATON 92 77 91 78 / 50 40 70 50
NAPLES 91 79 91 78 / 10 20 30 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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