968
FXUS62 KMFL 311056
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
656 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 655 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 106-110F, MAINLY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL HIT THE LOW-MID 90S.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW, FAVORING THE LAKE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SFC ANALYSES AND MODEL DATA STILL SHOW A SEMI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE SE CONUS, WHILE WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES BOTH SIDES OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE GULF
REGION AND THE W ATLANTIC. AT THE UPPER-LVLS, TROUGHINESS WILL
FURTHER DEEPEN OVER THE E/SE CONUS, WITH SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE
IMPULSES TRAVELING ALONG ITS BASE AND PASSING OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, MID-LVL RIDGING
LINGERING OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND WILL
ALLOW FOR THE ONSET OF DEEPER MOISTURE FILTERING INTO SOFLO.
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE BEST POOL OF MOISTURE
SKEWED TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. NBM AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS RAISE
POPS/WX COVERAGE ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
30-50% RANGE FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, AND UP TO AROUND
60 PERCENT FOR PALM BEACH AND THE LAKE REGION. LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR TODAY KEEP THE MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%)
RIGHT ALONG THE CWA BOUNDARY ALONG THE LAKE REGION, WHICH MEANS THAT
GLADES, NORTHERN HENDRY AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PALM BEACH
COUNTIES COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS. MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE IN THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE, DCAPE
AROUND 700 J/KG AND PWATS INCREASING BACK TO AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
RESUME ACROSS MUCH OF SOFLO, ESPECIALLY OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. A PVA IMPULSE TRAVELING ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO ADD ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES WEAKEN, KEEPING SFC WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WITH SLOW-MOVING OR EVEN STATIONARY STORMS.
FOR SATURDAY, THE MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL BE
A GRADUAL SHIFT TO A MORE SW TO S FLOW, WHICH WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS SOFLO. POPS JUMP INTO THE 30-50% SOUTH OF I-75, AND
60-80% FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM AND
SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN HIT THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF SOFLO, WITH POSSIBLE UPPER 90S OVER SOME INLAND LOCATIONS.
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 106-110F RANGE OVER
EAST COAST LOCATIONS FOR WHICH A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT,
MAINLY FOR THE METRO AREAS. BREEZIER CONDITIONS OVER COASTAL COLLIER
COUNTY MAY HELP IN PREVENTING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A PREVAILING WETTER PATTERN AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO SURGE DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS,
THEN BECOMING EASTERLY BY TUESDAY AS THE W ATL RIDGE EXPANDS
CLOSER TO SOFLO. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FROM
EASTERN/INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND TO WESTERN AREAS BY MID
WEEK.
LATEST NBM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SURGED IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTENT ACROSS SOFLO, LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODEL PWATS WELL ABOVE 2" AND MAX POPS UPWARDS OF 90% WILL KEEP A
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH WETTEST DAYS BEING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ATTM. THE ADDED INSTABILITY AND UPPER-LVL SUPPORT FROM
PASSING SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ON BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE LAKE REGION.
BY TUESDAY, EASTERLY FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATER WILL RETURN WITH SEA BREEZES DRIVING CONVECTION TOWARDS
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. BUT IN GENERAL, EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH BASICALLY
THE WHOLE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES,
DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S, AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 70S OVER INLAND SOUTH FL
TO AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 19-20Z. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY OVER DJT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES FOR WHICH A PROB30 IS IN PLACE. THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC TERMINALS WILL CARRY VCTS AND WILL BE
UPDATED AS NECESSARY. APF HAS THE LOWEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
AS THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. L/V FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE W/SW AT AROUND 10KT
AFTER 15Z, THEN L/V AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT
FOR AFTERNOON PERIODS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY
WINDS. IN GENERAL, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 94 78 93 79 / 40 10 50 20
WEST KENDALL 94 75 93 75 / 30 10 40 10
OPA-LOCKA 96 78 94 79 / 40 20 50 30
HOMESTEAD 94 77 93 79 / 20 10 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 79 92 79 / 50 20 60 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 94 79 92 79 / 50 20 60 30
PEMBROKE PINES 94 79 93 79 / 50 20 60 30
WEST PALM BEACH 94 77 93 77 / 60 30 70 20
BOCA RATON 93 77 92 78 / 50 20 60 30
NAPLES 91 80 91 79 / 20 20 40 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ068-072-074-168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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