163
FXUS62 KMFL 312258
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
658 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 654 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 106-110F, MAINLY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL HIT THE LOW-MID 90S.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW, FAVORING THE LAKE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
REGIONAL MORNING SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN PLENTY OF RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THERE IS STILL SOME
LINGERING SAHARAN DUST FROM YESTERDAY'S EVENT. MODEL DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SE CONUS, WHICH HAS EVIDENTLY ADVECTED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TOWARD OUR REGION. HIGHER PWAT VALUES OF NEAR
2.0" ARE ALREADY STARTING TO ADVECT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ACCORDING TO
RECENT ACARS DATA FROM KFLL AND KMIA. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE DRY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROMINENT THROUGH
MOST OF OUR ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, EVEN WITH THE INTRUSION OF THIS
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE SOUTH. A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL STILL BE DICTATING OUR SURFACE
FLOW. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION SINCE THIS MORNING ALONG A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LINGERING SAL AND HIGHER PWATS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA,
NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. A
WEAKER SURFACE FLOW TODAY SHOULD ALLOW THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND AND PROVIDE THAT EXTRA FORCING WE HAD
BEEN LACKING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN METROS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS UPON
THE IMMEDIATE FORMATION OF THE BREEZE. GIVEN THE DRY AMBIENT AIR IN
PLACE, IT IS PLAUSIBLE FOR A ROBUST CORE OR TWO THAT FORMS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. WITH THIS DELAYED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS OUR EASTERN METRO/COASTAL AREAS, A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH HAZARDOUS HEAT
INDICES EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE 105-110 F DEGREE RANGE. LOCAL
RELIEF SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS BOTH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER PICK UP.
WE SHOULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW ALONG THE TAIL OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WITH AN OVERALL SIMILAR SUPERFICIAL SETUP TO TODAY. SHOWERS
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A
FEW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED AND NUMEROUS
STORM ACTIVITY. OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF, WITH AN EVOLVING
THREAT OF ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STORM
CELLS ARE POISED TO STAY PINNED ALONG THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. AS A
DISCLAIMER, WPC WILL HAVE NOT ONLY OUR EASTERN METROS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, BUT OUR ENTIRE CWA DUE TO THE
OVERALL MOISTENING OF OUR ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER SATURATION ALOFT. TODAY'S LOWER-LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
CARRY OVER INTO TOMORROW'S FORECAST, ALLOWING SOME COLLAPSING CORES
TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE COINCIDENT HAZARDS. OUR EASTERN
COASTAL/METRO AREAS SHOULD AGAIN BE AT OR NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE TO AS HIGH AS
110 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A PREVAILING WETTER PATTERN AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO SURGE DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS,
THEN BECOMING EASTERLY BY TUESDAY AS THE W ATL RIDGE EXPANDS
CLOSER TO SOFLO. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FROM
EASTERN/INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND TO WESTERN AREAS BY MID
WEEK.
LATEST NBM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SURGED IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONTENT ACROSS SOFLO, LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODEL PWATS WELL ABOVE 2" AND MAX POPS UPWARDS OF 90% WILL KEEP A
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH WETTEST DAYS BEING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ATTM. THE ADDED INSTABILITY AND UPPER-LVL SUPPORT FROM
PASSING SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ON BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE LAKE REGION.
BY TUESDAY, EASTERLY FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATER WILL RETURN WITH SEA BREEZES DRIVING CONVECTION TOWARDS
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. BUT IN GENERAL, EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH BASICALLY
THE WHOLE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES,
DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S, AND MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 70S OVER INLAND SOUTH FL
TO AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE, SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL EASTERN SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT
FOR AFTERNOON PERIODS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY
WINDS. IN GENERAL, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2 FT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 93 79 92 / 30 60 30 60
WEST KENDALL 75 93 75 92 / 20 50 30 50
OPA-LOCKA 79 95 79 93 / 30 60 20 60
HOMESTEAD 77 93 78 92 / 10 40 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 92 79 91 / 40 60 30 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 92 79 91 / 40 60 30 60
PEMBROKE PINES 79 94 80 92 / 40 60 20 60
WEST PALM BEACH 77 93 77 92 / 40 70 30 70
BOCA RATON 78 92 78 91 / 40 60 30 70
NAPLES 79 91 78 91 / 10 30 30 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AD/NP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...NMP
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