984
FXUS62 KMFL 010650
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 220 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110 ACROSS
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM 11 AM THROUGH 6 PM FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE
LAKE REGION AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
- HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A RATHER DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW COMPLEX OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL SLOWLY DIG TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AS TODAY PROGRESSES. THE MID
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRY TO OPEN UP HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD, HOWEVER, DEEP TROUGHING WILL STILL
EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION, A WEAK VORT MAX WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT WELL OFF TO THE NORTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT
HEADING INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON
SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, AND THEREFORE, SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY.
WHILE A POCKET OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, (BETWEEN 850 AND 550MB), WILL TRY TO HOLD ON
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY, THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THIS LAYER WILL GIVE WAY TO DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW, THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED OVER THE METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WITH A RATHER LIGHT STEERING
FLOW IN PLACE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
HEAT WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE THE RATHER DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH STILL REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
GULF ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUITE DOES SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TRYING
TO PUSH BACK OVER THE REGION STARTING LATER ON MONDAY AND THEN
EVEN MORE SO HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WASH OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY AS MONDAY PROGRESSES, AND THEN SLOWLY
BECOMING EASTERLY MOVING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE CONTINUING ESPECIALLY THROUGH MONDAY,
COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN
PLACE, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY PINNED FOR ONE MORE DAY ON MONDAY,
ALLOWING FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. WITH PWAT VALUES
GENERALLY LOOKING TO REMAIN AT 2.0 INCHES OR HIGHER DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ON MONDAY. WHILE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL SHIFT AND
REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL
CREATE A HEAT CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THEY WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 EACH AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY RISES IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS SOME OF THE GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAK TUTT TO MAKE A CLOSE PASS NEAR THE
REGION. THIS COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE,
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW
AFTER 15Z. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME SSE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AS THE SEA BREEZE TRIES TO PUSH INLAND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 93 79 92 80 / 40 30 40 10
WEST KENDALL 93 76 92 77 / 30 20 40 10
OPA-LOCKA 95 79 93 80 / 40 30 40 20
HOMESTEAD 93 79 92 80 / 30 20 40 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 79 91 80 / 50 30 40 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 93 80 91 80 / 50 30 50 20
PEMBROKE PINES 94 80 92 81 / 40 30 40 20
WEST PALM BEACH 93 77 92 78 / 70 30 60 30
BOCA RATON 92 79 91 79 / 60 30 50 30
NAPLES 91 79 91 79 / 20 20 40 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ071>074-172>174.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC
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