419
FXUS62 KMFL 021737
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
- HIGH RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TODAY AND MONDAY.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 103 AND 108
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
RATHER PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD HEADING INTO MONDAY. WHILE
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THE GENERAL TROUGH AXIS WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE REGION, IT WILL MAKE A CLOSE APPROACH TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. BY MONDAY, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL START TO RETROGRADE BACK OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY BLOCK THE SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE,
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL
AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND IT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY HEADING INTO MONDAY.
WHILE THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF MONDAY, IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
PINNED OVER THE METRO AREAS AS IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ADVANCE
VERY FAR INLAND. IN ADDITION TO THIS, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID LEVELS, DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND PWATS
GENERALLY RISING AND RANGING BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.4 INCHES ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AS WELL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION TO OCCUR EARLIER THAN IT HAS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. WITH A RATHER LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW IN
PLACE, THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION
WILL REMAIN SLOW, AND RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS, WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
TAKE PLACE OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY, IT
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AS STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TAKE PLACE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 102 AND 108, HOWEVER,
WITH CONVECTION STARTING EARLIER, THEY WILL NOT REMAIN AT THESE PEAK
LEVELS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL BE PARKED OVER THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY OPENING
BACK UP INTO A TROUGH AND GETTING PULLED NORTH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. TO THE EAST, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRY TO BUILD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO A RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW ON TUESDAY, AND THEN A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LATEST
GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT
VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION, THE MAIN DRIVER OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS THEY PUSH INLAND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER,
WITH THE LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER NEAR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 103 TO 108 EACH DAY.
MOVING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE FORECAST DOES BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN AS THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF A POTENTIAL TUTT FEATURE MOVING OVER THE BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE STILL REMAINS IN
DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE. THE ECMWF GUIDANCE SUITE DOES SHOW A STRONGER TUTT
GETTING A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION, WHILE THE GFS SUITE SHOWS THIS
FEATURE REMAINING A BIT FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
AND WEAKER. THE CLOSER AND STRONGER THIS FEATURE IS, THE BIGGER
ROLE IT COULD PLAY IN ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN ANY EVENT, EASTERLY FLOW STILL LOOKS TO
HOLD STRONG HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD CREATE
A FOCUS OF THE HIGHEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OCCURRING
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND
KEEPS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THESE AREAS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BOUTS OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WELL AS ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS AS SHRA/TSRA
IMPACT TERMINALS. SHORT FUSED AMENDMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO
ONGOING TEMPOS MAY BE NEEDED AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES OVER NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. L/V WINDS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 92 79 91 / 20 70 30 70
WEST KENDALL 77 92 76 91 / 20 70 20 70
OPA-LOCKA 79 93 79 92 / 20 70 30 70
HOMESTEAD 79 92 80 91 / 20 50 20 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 91 79 90 / 30 70 30 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 91 79 91 / 30 70 30 70
PEMBROKE PINES 80 92 80 91 / 20 70 30 70
WEST PALM BEACH 77 92 78 91 / 30 70 30 60
BOCA RATON 78 91 79 90 / 30 70 30 60
NAPLES 79 92 79 91 / 20 30 20 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...HADI
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