722
FXUS62 KMFL 040624
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
224 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 219 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
- INCREASING EASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL INTRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A MID LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS GEORGIA, THE WESTERN CAROLINAS,
AND THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS STRONG MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPS IT BLOCKED FROM PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. THIS MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AND WILL BE
PULLED NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY INTERACTING WITH AND
GETTING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THIS HAPPENS, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO GRADUALLY EXTEND TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT OUT AS TODAY PROGRESSES AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY START
TO PUSH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND SEA
BREEZE DRIVEN, HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE GENERAL
STEERING FLOW WILL SLOWLY TRY TO SHIFT TODAY, BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH,
(GENERALLY BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON). THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES AS THEY PUSH INLAND.
WITH THE STEERING FLOW REMAINING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST,
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL TRY TO SHIFT OVER TOWARDS
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SINCE THE STEERING FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL DRIFT BACK OVER THE PORTIONS
OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN STORM
MOTION GENERALLY BECOME DEPENDENT ON THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. STORM MOTION WILL STILL REMAIN SLOW AND HIGH RAINFALL
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN PLACE.
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS CLOSER TO THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF, EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH FURTHER INLAND, FOCUSING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND INTO SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
TAKE PLACE AND WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110 EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK MAINLY ACROSS THE METRO AREAS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE (AROUND 20
PERCENT) OF SEEING THE HEATRISK GO INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAJOR CATEGORY IS HEAT THAT COULD AFFECT
ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING OR PROPER HYDRATION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, THE MID-LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS AROUND 2.0-2.2 INCHES) AND
PERSISTENT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE ONCE
AGAIN LARGELY FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
HOWEVER, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A TUTT FEATURE TRAVERSING
JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE WILL
HINGE ON THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON ITS
EXACT TRACK AND DEGREE OF INFLUENCE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ONE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE SUITE BRINGS THE DISTURBANCE CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA,
ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION, WHILE ANOTHER KEEPS
THE TUTT FURTHER NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH SCENARIO UNFOLDS, THE VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CLUSTER AROUND LOW- END QPF VALUES (0.1 TO 0.5 INCHES), SUGGESTING
THAT WIDESPREAD HEAVY ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF ANY
ISOLATED OUTLIER.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE MID-LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITS DOMINANCE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINTAINING A
PREVAILING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS DROPPING INTO THE 1.6-1.8
INCH RANGE, BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
DRIER PROFILE SHOULD ACT TO FURTHER SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD STILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WITH THE
ROBUST RIDGE REMAINING ENTRENCHED, A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S, JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WHILE
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH 105-110 F. HEAT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WHERE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 14Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE SW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE
DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY
START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THEY SHIFT AND BECOME
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY. EASTERLY WINDS BECOME MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THESE WINDS
COULD BECOME OCCASIONALLY FRESH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT
2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO BECOME
HIGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 91 79 90 80 / 70 30 40 30
WEST KENDALL 91 77 90 77 / 80 30 50 20
OPA-LOCKA 92 79 91 80 / 70 30 50 30
HOMESTEAD 91 78 90 79 / 70 30 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 79 89 80 / 60 30 50 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 90 79 90 80 / 70 30 50 30
PEMBROKE PINES 91 79 90 81 / 70 30 50 30
WEST PALM BEACH 91 77 90 79 / 60 20 60 20
BOCA RATON 90 78 89 80 / 60 20 50 30
NAPLES 91 77 91 76 / 50 30 80 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....DPB
AVIATION...DPB
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