931
FXUS62 KMFL 042255
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
655 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 653 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
- INCREASING EASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL INTRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN DEEP MOISTURE, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. FLORIDA FINDS
ITSELF IN A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER GEORGIA AND THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT, AN AREA OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTENDS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE
JERSEY SHORE. MOST OF THE BETTER FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN OFF
SHORE ALONG THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CLOSER
TO THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VERY WEAK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, KEEPING MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TIED TO SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
BEGIN TO EXERT GREATER INFLUENCE OVER THE PENINSULA AND PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS
SHIFT IN WINDS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE HIGHER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
(65% TO 75%) MORE OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS.
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAD PERSISTED ACROSS THE
REGION, A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN GUIDANCE HAD BEEN ANTICIPATING. AS
A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MAY
BEGIN CLOSER TO THE METRO AREA THAN WHAT SOME CAMS ARE SHOWING. WITH
SURFACE FLOW LOOKING TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY,
STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS FIRST ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN EVERGLADES AS DISCRETE SINGLE CELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ALONG
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS, BECOMING MORE CONGLOMERATED AND
MULTICELLULAR. WEAK STEERING AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE METRO
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IMPACTS
FOR LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. DCAPE LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE LESS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION, CREATING A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THEREFORE, WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FURTHER INLAND, WHICH IS WHY THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS ALONG INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ONCE AGAIN, STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE CONCERNS WITH ANY STORM.
MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK, AFFECTING SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT PROPER COLLING OR
HYDRATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 105 TO 110 F
RANGE, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, THE MID-LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS AROUND 2.0-2.2 INCHES) AND
PERSISTENT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE ONCE
AGAIN LARGELY FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
HOWEVER, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A TUTT FEATURE TRAVERSING
JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE WILL
HINGE ON THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON ITS
EXACT TRACK AND DEGREE OF INFLUENCE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ONE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE SUITE BRINGS THE DISTURBANCE CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA,
ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION, WHILE ANOTHER KEEPS
THE TUTT FURTHER NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH SCENARIO UNFOLDS, THE VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CLUSTER AROUND LOW- END QPF VALUES (0.1 TO 0.5 INCHES), SUGGESTING
THAT WIDESPREAD HEAVY ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY OUTSIDE OF ANY
ISOLATED OUTLIER.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE MID-LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITS DOMINANCE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINTAINING A
PREVAILING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS DROPPING INTO THE 1.6-1.8
INCH RANGE, BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
DRIER PROFILE SHOULD ACT TO FURTHER SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD STILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WITH THE
ROBUST RIDGE REMAINING ENTRENCHED, A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S, JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WHILE
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH 105-110 F. HEAT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WHERE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY DROP
VISIBILITIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR ALL EASTERN SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW, WHILE A GULF BREEZE SHIFT WINDS WEST AT KAPF. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL FAVOR INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY
START TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THEY SHIFT AND BECOME
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY. EASTERLY WINDS BECOME MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THESE WINDS
COULD BECOME OCCASIONALLY FRESH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT
2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO BECOME
HIGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 89 79 90 / 40 70 40 70
WEST KENDALL 75 90 77 90 / 30 70 40 60
OPA-LOCKA 78 90 79 91 / 40 70 40 70
HOMESTEAD 78 89 78 90 / 30 70 40 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 80 89 / 40 70 50 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 89 80 90 / 40 70 50 70
PEMBROKE PINES 79 89 80 90 / 40 70 40 70
WEST PALM BEACH 77 90 79 90 / 30 60 30 70
BOCA RATON 77 88 79 89 / 40 70 50 70
NAPLES 77 90 76 91 / 30 90 20 90
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....DPB
AVIATION...NMP
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