550
FXUS62 KMFL 051208
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
808 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 739 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE METRO AREAS.
- INCREASING EASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL INTRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND START LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION, WITH THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES, REMAINING ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY
AUGUST.
DIURNAL AND SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY DRIVER
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION EACH DAY. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND THE EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH, EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND EACH AFTERNOON WHILE
PINNING THE GULF SEA BREEZE NEAR THE WEST COAST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY, FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST, REACHING THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S ACROSS COASTAL AND METRO AREAS, AND
THE LOWER 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110,
HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AT THESE PEAK VALUES FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. IN ADDITION, MOST OF THE METRO AREAS
WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK VALUES TODAY AND THURSDAY,
WHICH COULD AFFECT SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR
HYDRATION.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, THE MAIN FEATURE OF FOCUS WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN TIGHT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN A BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE. UNCERTAINTY DOES RISE FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST AS THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE
REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO HOW IT HANDLES THE INTENSITY
AND MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH. THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE CURVING OFFSHORE BEFORE REACHING
THE FLORIDA COASTLINE, HOWEVER, THE GFS GUIDANCE SUITE PUSHES MOST
OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE RECURVED/MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE HIGHER MOISTURE
SURGE OFFSHORE AND IT WOULD FEATURE MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE MORE SEA BREEZE DRIVEN.
WITH THE EXTRA MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PUSHING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, THIS WOULD HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE
LATEST FORECAST DOES CONTINUE TO FAVOR ELEVATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, IT KEEPS THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO THE
STRONGER EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 103 AND 108.
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THIS INVERTED TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD AGAIN FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALSO
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD BACK TOWARDS THE REGION AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BEING SEA BREEZE DRIVEN AND WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW STAYING IN PLACE, THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 EACH DAY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HEADING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUING TO NUDGE CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA
HEADING INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL OF ANOTHER MID
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY TRY TO PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS
ON THE HIGHER END DUE TO GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES IN THE EXACT
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
MAY ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF A SAHARAN DUST
LAYER THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION AS WELL FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW, THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST MODELS AND FEATURES SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION EACH
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
DUE TO THE STRONGER RIDGING IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL SAHARAN
DUST PUSHING INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EASTERN METRO
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS A SE WIND BRINGS THINGS OVER LAND. VCSH
AND VCTS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTION SETS UP, MOST LIKELY
FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND SW FLORIDA, TSRA CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR ALL TERMINALS RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOR
EASTERN SITES, WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, WHILE A
GULF BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS WEST AT KAPF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OUT OF THE EAST TODAY INTO THURSDAY, BECOMING MODERATE ACROSS
MOST LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK. OCCASIONAL FRESH BREEZES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL
REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY, HOWEVER, SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND COULD RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIP CURRENT
RISK TO BECOME HIGH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 90 80 90 80 / 60 40 60 50
WEST KENDALL 90 76 91 77 / 50 40 60 40
OPA-LOCKA 91 79 91 79 / 60 40 60 50
HOMESTEAD 90 79 90 79 / 50 40 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 80 89 80 / 60 40 60 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 80 90 80 / 60 40 60 60
PEMBROKE PINES 90 80 90 80 / 60 40 60 60
WEST PALM BEACH 90 79 90 79 / 70 40 60 60
BOCA RATON 89 79 89 79 / 70 40 60 60
NAPLES 91 76 92 76 / 80 20 70 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...AEG
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