036
FXUS62 KMFL 051751
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
151 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE METRO AREAS.
- INCREASING EASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL INTRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
INCREASED ESE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE
FROM THE ATLANTIC OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. CURRENT MID-LEVEL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SOUTH
FLORIDA IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, WITH
PWATS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH ATLANTIC RIDGING STRENGTHENING AND EXTENDING INTO FLORIDA,
BREEZIER EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR QUICKER STORM
MOTIONS. DESPITE STORM MOTIONS BEING A LITTLE BIT QUICKER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS, THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS, EASTERLY FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS MORE TOWARDS INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL (ABOUT
40% CHANCE) WILL BE ALONG THE GULF BREEZE IN COLLIER COUNTY.
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER URBAN AREAS MAY CREATE
ISOLATED FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING
LOCATIONS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CREATE LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY OVER ALLIGATOR ALLEY
AND TAMIAMI TRAIL. THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR AND DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 900 J/KG MAY ALSO HINT AT AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO BE COMMON WITH ANY STORM.
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET, WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS PERSISTING. OVERNIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE GULF STREAM WATERS,
MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE EASTERN METRO. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
PRETTY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
FOCUSING ALONG INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WITH MOIST
CONDITIONS PERSISTING, THE MAIN THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THURSDAY MAY BE A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER, SO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS MAY BE MORE
COMMON. AS RESULT, STORM MOTIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE BIT
QUICKER TOWARDS THE WEST.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WILL PERSIST FOR ALL URBAN AREAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT STILL
CLIMB UP INTO THE 100 TO 108 F RANGE. SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT
PROPER COOLING AND HYDRATION WILL BE AT RISK OF HEAT ILLNESS UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, THE MAIN FEATURE OF FOCUS WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN TIGHT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN A BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE. UNCERTAINTY DOES RISE FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST AS THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE
REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO HOW IT HANDLES THE INTENSITY
AND MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH. THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE CURVING OFFSHORE BEFORE REACHING
THE FLORIDA COASTLINE, HOWEVER, THE GFS GUIDANCE SUITE PUSHES MOST
OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE RECURVED/MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE HIGHER MOISTURE
SURGE OFFSHORE AND IT WOULD FEATURE MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE MORE SEA BREEZE DRIVEN.
WITH THE EXTRA MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PUSHING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, THIS WOULD HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE
LATEST FORECAST DOES CONTINUE TO FAVOR ELEVATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, IT KEEPS THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO THE
STRONGER EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 103 AND 108.
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THIS INVERTED TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD AGAIN FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALSO
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD BACK TOWARDS THE REGION AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BEING SEA BREEZE DRIVEN AND WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW STAYING IN PLACE, THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 EACH DAY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HEADING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUING TO NUDGE CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA
HEADING INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL OF ANOTHER MID
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY TRY TO PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS
ON THE HIGHER END DUE TO GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES IN THE EXACT
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
MAY ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF A SAHARAN DUST
LAYER THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION AS WELL FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW, THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST MODELS AND FEATURES SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION EACH
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
DUE TO THE STRONGER RIDGING IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL SAHARAN
DUST PUSHING INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC,
WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL EASTERN SITES, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST, BECOMING MORE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A GULF BREEZE WILL SHIFT
WINDS WEST AT KAPF, WHERE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OUT OF THE EAST TODAY INTO THURSDAY, BECOMING MODERATE ACROSS
MOST LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK. OCCASIONAL FRESH BREEZES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL
REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY, HOWEVER, SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND COULD RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIP CURRENT
RISK TO BECOME HIGH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 90 80 90 / 40 60 50 70
WEST KENDALL 76 91 77 91 / 40 60 40 70
OPA-LOCKA 79 91 79 91 / 40 60 50 70
HOMESTEAD 79 90 79 91 / 40 60 50 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 89 80 89 / 40 60 60 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 90 / 40 60 60 80
PEMBROKE PINES 80 90 80 90 / 40 60 60 70
WEST PALM BEACH 79 90 79 90 / 40 60 60 70
BOCA RATON 79 89 79 89 / 40 60 60 80
NAPLES 76 92 76 92 / 20 70 20 90
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...NMP
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