192
FXUS62 KMFL 052049
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
449 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW LONG TERM, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 444 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE METRO AREAS.
- INCREASING EASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL INTRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
INCREASED ESE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE
FROM THE ATLANTIC OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. CURRENT MID-LEVEL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SOUTH
FLORIDA IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, WITH
PWATS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH ATLANTIC RIDGING STRENGTHENING AND EXTENDING INTO FLORIDA,
BREEZIER EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR QUICKER STORM
MOTIONS. DESPITE STORM MOTIONS BEING A LITTLE BIT QUICKER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS, THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS, EASTERLY FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS MORE TOWARDS INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL (ABOUT
40% CHANCE) WILL BE ALONG THE GULF BREEZE IN COLLIER COUNTY.
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER URBAN AREAS MAY CREATE
ISOLATED FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING
LOCATIONS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CREATE LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY OVER ALLIGATOR ALLEY
AND TAMIAMI TRAIL. THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR AND DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 900 J/KG MAY ALSO HINT AT AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO BE COMMON WITH ANY STORM.
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET, WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS PERSISTING. OVERNIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE GULF STREAM WATERS,
MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE EASTERN METRO. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
PRETTY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
FOCUSING ALONG INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WITH MOIST
CONDITIONS PERSISTING, THE MAIN THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THURSDAY MAY BE A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER, SO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS MAY BE MORE
COMMON. AS RESULT, STORM MOTIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE BIT
QUICKER TOWARDS THE WEST.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WILL PERSIST FOR ALL URBAN AREAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT STILL
CLIMB UP INTO THE 100 TO 108 F RANGE. SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT
PROPER COOLING AND HYDRATION WILL BE AT RISK OF HEAT ILLNESS UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG LONG TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
THAT RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
CLIMBING TO NEAR 594 DAM OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES
WILL ALSO BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 F. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK AND ISOLATED MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, AFFECTING
ANYONE WITHOUT PROPER COOLING AND HYDRATION.
AT THE SURFACE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TIGHTEN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS FOR FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS OF
15 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO HINTING AT A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY, WHICH
ALSO LOOKS TO BRING SOME INCREASED MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INDICATE A HIGH CHANCE (80%) FOR PWATS TO
EXCEED 2 INCHES, ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
A RESULT, POPS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OF 90% ALONG INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE ON HOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS RESOLVE
THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE, BUT THE ADDED FORCING
FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE NUMEROUS AND STRONGER STORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
LOOK TO RELAX, WHICH WILL LESSEN THE SPEED OF EASTERLIES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO TREND DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL, WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE TYPICAL SEA-BREEZE INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT SOME DRIER AIR AND
SAHARAN DUST MAY START TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL), A BIT OF INCREASED MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. IF CONDITIONS GET TOO DRY ALOFT, IT IS MORE LIKELY
THAT CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP, DECREASING CHANCES FOR
STORMS. FOR NOW, POPS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK,
PEAKING AT AROUND 50% ALONG INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC,
WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL EASTERN SITES, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST, BECOMING MORE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A GULF BREEZE WILL SHIFT
WINDS WEST AT KAPF, WHERE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OUT OF THE EAST TODAY INTO THURSDAY, BECOMING MODERATE ACROSS
MOST LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK. OCCASIONAL FRESH BREEZES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL
REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY, HOWEVER, SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND COULD RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 444 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING ALONG ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 89 79 90 / 50 60 50 60
WEST KENDALL 76 89 76 90 / 50 60 50 60
OPA-LOCKA 79 90 79 91 / 50 60 50 60
HOMESTEAD 78 90 79 91 / 50 60 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 88 79 89 / 50 60 60 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 89 80 89 / 40 60 60 60
PEMBROKE PINES 80 89 80 90 / 50 60 50 60
WEST PALM BEACH 79 89 79 89 / 40 60 60 70
BOCA RATON 79 88 79 88 / 40 60 50 70
NAPLES 76 91 77 91 / 20 90 30 90
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....NMP
AVIATION...NMP
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