088
FXUS62 KMFL 242229
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
629 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE EVERGLADES COULD PRODUCE LOWER
VISIBILITIES AND UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY OVER INLAND AREAS
TONIGHT.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN THE MAIN
THREATS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
22Z ACARS DATA FROM LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA AIRPORTS IN TANDEM WITH A
LOOK AT THE GOES EAST'S DUST COMPOSITE DEPICTS THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF A DIFFUSE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF ONE OR TWO TALLER CONVECTIVE CORES OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, LACKLUSTER LAPSE RATES AND A "SYNOPTIC
DESERT" ALOFT HAVE KEPT CONVECTION SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY IN
CHECK. WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION IN SHORT ORDER, DIURNAL
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR MOST OF US FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A SUBTLE EASTERLY FLOW
ENHANCEMENT AND MOISTURE SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
COULD RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY DAYBREAK. ONLY OTHER
FORECAST ITEM TO PASS ALONG IS THAT WHILE SEVERAL FIRES HAVE BEEN
FULLY CONTAINED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE RELATIVELY LARGE
CHIPMUNK FIRE CONTINUES TO ACTIVELY BURN IN THE EVERGLADES. THE
MEAN SURFACE WIND FLOW OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN REDUCED AIR QUALITY ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES OVERNIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS AND KEEPS ANY
LINGERING SMOKE CLOSE TO THE GROUND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
LIKE A PROVERBIAL PHOENIX RISING FROM THE ASHES, DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS HAS ONCE AGAIN
SPARKED UP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TODAY AS THE
REGION REMAINS IN A COL IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF SURFACE RIDGING.
ALOFT, A SLIGHT PERTURBATION IN THE 500MB WIND FIELD ALOFT REVEALS
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THAT IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OUR AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. WHILE THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ISN'T PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY (500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR THE DAILY MEAN FOR TODAY'S DATE), ENOUGH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
SURFACE MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
AND PROPAGATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WHILE WE REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SURFACE FLOW,
THE SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
STILL EXERT JUST ENOUGH BACKGROUND INFLUENCE TODAY THAT SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN OUT OF A LIGHT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. KAMX RADAR AND GOES EAST IMAGERY CONTINUE
TO DEPICT THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE MAKING A CONTINUAL BEELINE/PUSH
INLAND, BOLSTERED BY REINFORCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES (AND COLD
POOLS) FROM WANING CONVECTION ON THE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO. THE CONFLUENCE OF THESE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND THE GULF BREEZE SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INLAND AREAS
(EVERGLADES AND ALLIGATOR ALLEY) BEFORE THE MAXIMA OF CONVECTION
FOCUSES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION, WITH A POTENTIAL DRIFT
BACK EASTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH AND CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LAPSE RATES AND SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES REMAIN LACKLUSTER OVERALL, BUT
ENOUGH RESIDUAL DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN WHEN COUPLED
WITH STOUT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL THREAT OF A FEW ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 45-
55MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WITH
THE MOST ROBUST CORES. WITH THE SCHOOL SEASON (AND EXTRACURRICULAR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES) NOW UPON US, ENSURING THAT STUDENTS AND THE
PUBLIC ALIKE ARE SAFE FROM LIGHTNING IS AN IMPORTANT THING TO KEEP
IN MIND. AN ADAGE THAT IS OFT REPEATED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IS WHEN THUNDER ROARS, HEAD INDOORS AND IT IS EVEN MORE
IMPORTANT GIVEN THE UNIQUE FLORIDA CLIMATE WE FIND OURSELVES IN
WHERE WEATHER CAN OFTEN CHANGE ON A DIME. EVEN IN THESE OTHERWISE
UNASSUMING STORM ENVIRONMENTS, MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND
BRIEF AMPLIFIED ASCENT COULD SUPPORT A LOW-END POTENTIAL (<5%) OF AN
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WITH A BRIEF PULSE SEVERE STORM. THE HREF
AND REFS BOTH HINT AT THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED POCKETS OF 2-4"
OF RAINFALL, MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. UNFORTUNATELY, THE ISOLATED NATURE OF RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN PRESENT ITSELF AS FEAST OR FAMINE AS SEVERAL LARGE WILDFIRES
CONTINUE TO BURN ACROSS THE EVERGLADES AND EVERGLADES & FRANCIS
S. TAYLOR WILDLIFE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
THE CAVEAT THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OR ANVIL CLOUD COVER
WILL REDUCE TEMPERATURES IN SHORT ORDER.
RECENT HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT A NOCTURNAL
SURFACE INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND AREAS ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY TRAP ANY RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM THE ASSORTMENT OF
WILDFIRES CLOSE TO THE GROUND ACROSS INLAND LOCALES. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY IS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THESE WILDFIRES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG TAMIAMI TRAIL AND ALLIGATOR ALLEY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED OVERNIGHT AND IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
OCEANIC INFLUENCES WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE
ALONG HE COAST WITH INLAND LOCALES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S BY
DAYBREAK.
THE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
ENHANCEMENT OF EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO USHER
IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL VERTICAL COLUMN, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (50-60%) ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF
EASTERLY FLOW, THE FOCI OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO INLAND
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AS THE CONFLUENCE OF THE GULF BREEZE AND
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE ACT TO SPARK (NO PUN INTENDED) THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ASIDE FROM THE MAXIMA AND PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST
RAINFALL PROBABILITY DUE TO SUBTLE FLOW CHANGES, THE STORM SCALE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN RATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY ON TUESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, AND POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE CARDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POCKET OF
UPPER 90S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AS THE INWARD
PROROGATION OF THE GULF BREEZE MAY BE MORE STUNTED BY THE EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME. JUST LIKE THE RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN OF DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE SUMMERTIME, THIS FORECASTER WILL ALSO BE
BACK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
BEGIN TO EXPAND BACK OVER THE REGION AND CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT BACK
TO AN EASTERLY OR EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS EASTERLY TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST REGIME WILL PRODUCE A PATTERN THAT IS COMMON IN THE
SUMMERTIME ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION BEING DRIVEN BY THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE WEAK SAL WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK AND
ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE UTILIZED FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SAME TIME, WE WILL BE
MONITORING FOR SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES AND VORTICITY MAXIMA FORMING
OFF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR THESE WEAK LOWS TO FORM, MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS
AND ADVECT CLOSE TO THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS, ABUNDANT MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.8-2.0+") WILL BE PRESENT FOR WED-FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY VORTICITY AND DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) EACH DAY WILL BE
ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE EASTERLY TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST WIND REGIME FAVORS THESE AREAS RECEIVING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LAKE REGIONS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ALONG THE COASTAL
METROS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
ISOLATED INLAND SHRA/TSRA IS FORECAST TO WANE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
03Z, WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. SHRA/TSRA IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FOCUSING ACROSS
INLAND LOCALES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDED IN
VCTS FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL BUT
LACK OF OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALLY ELEVATED
WIND CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET OR LESS EACH DAY. A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 93 80 92 / 10 30 60 70
WEST KENDALL 76 93 77 92 / 10 30 60 70
OPA-LOCKA 79 93 80 93 / 10 30 60 70
HOMESTEAD 77 93 79 92 / 10 40 50 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 92 80 91 / 10 20 50 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 93 81 92 / 0 20 50 70
PEMBROKE PINES 79 93 80 92 / 10 30 50 70
WEST PALM BEACH 79 93 79 93 / 10 30 40 80
BOCA RATON 79 91 80 91 / 10 20 50 70
NAPLES 77 93 77 92 / 10 20 30 80
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...HADI
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