417
FXUS62 KMFL 250609
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 208 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL. HEAVY RAIN,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON.
- A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TODAY, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
DRIVING EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL HELP PROMOTE
CONTINUING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION,
STARTING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD, THEN PROCEEDING INLAND INTO THE EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE INSTABILITY AND NEAR CLIMO LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, BUT LACK OF SUPPORT AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT, ALONG
WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. NEVERTHELESS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTS 40-50 MPH COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS A LITTLE STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, SLIGHTLY
WEAKENING RIDGING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT OVER
THE REGION AND IN TURN PROMOTE A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MUCH MOISTER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, WITH PWATS BACK UP TO 2
INCHES OR MORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING, CONVECTION WILL STILL
BEGIN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PROGRESS INLAND, BUT
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS (WITH
POPS IN THE 60-80% RANGE).
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL LINGER IN THE LOW 100S, BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE VALUES
RISING INTO THE 105-110F RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
REMAIN FAIRLY BALMY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
THE EAST COAST, AND DOWN TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN AN AREA OF WEAKNESS BETWEEN
TWO RIDGES, AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE HINTING AT A FEW TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGHS (TUTTS) MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION, WHICH COULD ENHANCE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT AND RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED
WEATHER. IN FACT, THE NBM IS PICKING UP ON THIS POSSIBILITY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH FRIDAY AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY BEING ONE
OF THE WETTER ONES IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD (WITH 60-80%
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND QPF IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE), AND ACTIVITY
BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE,
AND THE ADDED SUPPORT FROM FEATURES ALOFT, THE HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FL.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL SOLUTION AND SEE HOW
MODELS TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
RIDGING LOOKS LIKELY TO START BUILDING BACK OVER THE WEEKEND AND
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME A GENTLE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZE MID-MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE EAST COAST SITES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS REMAINS LOW. ACTIVITY DECREASES
WITH NIGHTFALL, WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE. ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS,
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WHILE WESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
AGAIN IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY STORM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 93 80 92 81 / 30 60 70 30
WEST KENDALL 93 77 92 77 / 30 60 70 40
OPA-LOCKA 93 80 93 79 / 30 60 70 30
HOMESTEAD 93 79 92 79 / 40 50 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 80 91 80 / 20 50 70 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 93 81 92 80 / 20 50 70 30
PEMBROKE PINES 93 80 92 80 / 30 50 70 30
WEST PALM BEACH 93 79 93 79 / 30 40 80 30
BOCA RATON 91 80 91 79 / 20 50 70 30
NAPLES 93 77 92 77 / 20 30 80 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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