963
FXUS62 KMFL 252239
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS,
WITH COVERAGE MOST LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL.
HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AS
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK. LATEST 18Z ACARS DATA STILL SHOWS SOME
LINGERING DRIER AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FROM A DISSIPATING
SAHARAN DUST LAYER AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN PWAT VALUES COMING IN
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES. AS THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER CONTINUES TO
ERODE, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING UP TO AROUND
2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
WITH A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON, THEY CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALONG SEA BREEZE OR OTHER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. JUST ENOUGH DRIER AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID LEVELS AND DCAPE VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 1000 AND 1100 J/KG OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 45 TO 55 MPH WIND
GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES DUE TO LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TODAY, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
DRIVING EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL HELP PROMOTE
CONTINUING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION,
STARTING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD, THEN PROCEEDING INLAND INTO THE EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE INSTABILITY AND NEAR CLIMO LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, BUT LACK OF SUPPORT AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT, ALONG
WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. NEVERTHELESS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTS 40-50 MPH COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS A LITTLE STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, SLIGHTLY
WEAKENING RIDGING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT OVER
THE REGION AND IN TURN PROMOTE A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MUCH MOISTER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, WITH PWATS BACK UP TO 2
INCHES OR MORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING, CONVECTION WILL STILL
BEGIN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PROGRESS INLAND, BUT
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS (WITH
POPS IN THE 60-80% RANGE).
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL LINGER IN THE LOW 100S, BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE VALUES
RISING INTO THE 105-110F RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
REMAIN FAIRLY BALMY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
THE EAST COAST, AND DOWN TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN AN AREA OF WEAKNESS BETWEEN
TWO RIDGES, AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE HINTING AT A FEW TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGHS (TUTTS) MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION, WHICH COULD ENHANCE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT AND RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED
WEATHER. IN FACT, THE NBM IS PICKING UP ON THIS POSSIBILITY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH FRIDAY AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY BEING ONE
OF THE WETTER ONES IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD (WITH 60-80%
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND QPF IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE), AND ACTIVITY
BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE,
AND THE ADDED SUPPORT FROM FEATURES ALOFT, THE HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FL.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL SOLUTION AND SEE HOW
MODELS TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
RIDGING LOOKS LIKELY TO START BUILDING BACK OVER THE WEEKEND AND
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR KAPF WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER
11Z. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE. ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS,
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WHILE WESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
AGAIN IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY STORM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 92 80 92 / 30 60 40 50
WEST KENDALL 77 92 78 92 / 40 60 40 50
OPA-LOCKA 79 93 80 93 / 30 60 40 50
HOMESTEAD 78 92 79 92 / 50 60 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 80 91 / 30 60 50 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 92 81 92 / 30 60 40 60
PEMBROKE PINES 80 92 80 92 / 30 60 40 50
WEST PALM BEACH 79 93 78 93 / 20 50 40 60
BOCA RATON 80 90 80 91 / 20 50 40 60
NAPLES 77 92 77 91 / 40 60 40 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC
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