213
FXUS62 KMFL 261145
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 714 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS,
WITH COVERAGE MOST LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL.
HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
11Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AMPLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN)
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE INVERSION
GRADUALLY ERODES WITH THE ONSET OF INSOLATION. THIS HAS LED TO A
RATHER QUICK DEMISE OF A RECENT LONE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS ABLE
TO GET GOING ACROSS METRO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THANKS TO EARLIER
OUTFLOW AND BRIEF MAXIMIZED ASCENT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BROUGHT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB
TEMPERATURES (-7C TO -8C) WHICH HAS ACTED TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. THIS ALLOWED FOR EARLIER MORNING
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO BE QUITE VIGOROUS IN NATURE
WITH AMPLE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OBSERVED EVEN WELL AWAY FROM
THE COLLAPSING CORES OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. ACARS SOUNDINGS
AS WELL AS RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT THE CONTINUATION OF RESIDUAL DRY
AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH
EXPLAINS WHY THE OUTFLOW WAS INDEED SO GUSTY. WITH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, A LULL IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE SURFACE INVERSION GRADUALLY ERODES AND DIURNAL
MIXING/HEATING GETS GOING IN EARNEST. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH BOTH CONVECTIVE (40-50 MPH WINDS AND
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING) AND HYDROLOGICAL (POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AS DISCUSSED BELOW) HAZARDS STILL IN PLAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
RIDGING WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE DRIVING EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AS IT EXPANDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WEAKENING
WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT OVER OUR AREA, AND IN TURN PROMOTE MORE
ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED AFTERNOONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MUCH MOISTER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN EACH DAY, WITH
PWATS BACK UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING, CONVECTION WILL STILL BEGIN
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PROGRESS INLAND, BUT COVERAGE IS
LIKELY TO BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FL. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL, WITH ISOLATED 3-4
INCHES IN SOME SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL LINGER IN THE LOW 100S, BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE VALUES
RISING INTO THE 105-110F RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
REMAIN FAIRLY BALMY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
THE EAST COAST, AND DOWN TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN AN AREA OF WEAKNESS BETWEEN
TWO RIDGES, AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME OF
THE ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE HINTING AT A FEW TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGHS (TUTTS) MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH COULD ENHANCE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT AND RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED
WEATHER. IN FACT, THE NBM IS PICKING UP ON THIS POSSIBILITY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH FRIDAY AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY BEING ONE OF
THE WETTER ONES THIS WEEKEND (WITH 60-80% CHANCES OF RAINFALL), WITH
ACTIVITY MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, AND
THE ADDED SUPPORT FROM FEATURES ALOFT, THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FL. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL START
TO BUILD BACK AND AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
ONGOING ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 17-19Z. SUB-MVFR CIGS AND VIS
AS WELL AS SUDDEN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY
TERMINAL IMPACTED BY SHRA/TSRA TODAY. ADDED IN A TEMPOS FOR KAPF
BETWEEN 19Z-23Z AS GUIDANCE IS MORE CONFIDENT ON WEST COAST
TERMINAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. L/V WINDS ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE. ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS,
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WHILE WESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
AGAIN IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY STORM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 91 80 91 80 / 60 40 50 20
WEST KENDALL 91 78 91 78 / 60 40 50 10
OPA-LOCKA 92 79 92 79 / 60 40 60 20
HOMESTEAD 92 79 92 78 / 50 40 50 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 80 90 81 / 60 40 50 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 80 91 81 / 60 30 50 20
PEMBROKE PINES 91 80 91 80 / 60 30 60 20
WEST PALM BEACH 92 78 92 78 / 60 30 50 20
BOCA RATON 90 80 90 79 / 60 30 50 20
NAPLES 92 76 91 77 / 60 40 60 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION/UPDATE...HADI
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