772
FXUS62 KMFL 262252
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
652 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 650 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS,
WITH COVERAGE MOST LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL.
HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP ALONG THE EASTERN METRO AREAS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE ATLANTIC BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
RIDGING WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A WEAK MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION MAKES ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE BAHAMAS. WHILE THESE
FEATURES MAY PROVIDE SOME INCREASED ASCENT, MOST STORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS ALONG MESOSCALE AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS, MAINLY ALONG INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA. STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ALONG THE
GULF BREEZE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING EAST LATE IN THE DAY MAY
ONCE AGAIN SPAWN NEW CONVECTION ALONG THE DADE AND BROWARD COUNTY
METRO AREAS. RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH SLIGHTLY MORE FORCING AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DO TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 700 AND 1000 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT, WHICH INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL UNDER ANY STORM MAY ALSO CREATE MINOR URBAN FLOODING
CONCERNS, WITH HREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A FEW HOT SPOTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN, MAINLY ALONG INTERIOR AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
RIDGING WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE DRIVING EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AS IT EXPANDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WEAKENING
WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT OVER OUR AREA, AND IN TURN PROMOTE MORE
ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED AFTERNOONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MUCH MOISTER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN EACH DAY, WITH
PWATS BACK UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING, CONVECTION WILL STILL BEGIN
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PROGRESS INLAND, BUT COVERAGE IS
LIKELY TO BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FL. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL, WITH ISOLATED 3-4
INCHES IN SOME SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL LINGER IN THE LOW 100S, BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE VALUES
RISING INTO THE 105-110F RANGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
REMAIN FAIRLY BALMY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
THE EAST COAST, AND DOWN TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN AN AREA OF WEAKNESS BETWEEN
TWO RIDGES, AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME OF
THE ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE HINTING AT A FEW TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGHS (TUTTS) MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH COULD ENHANCE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT AND RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED
WEATHER. IN FACT, THE NBM IS PICKING UP ON THIS POSSIBILITY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH FRIDAY AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY BEING ONE OF
THE WETTER ONES THIS WEEKEND (WITH 60-80% CHANCES OF RAINFALL), WITH
ACTIVITY MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, AND
THE ADDED SUPPORT FROM FEATURES ALOFT, THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FL. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL START
TO BUILD BACK AND AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL SITES.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A NEW CROP OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH
COULD BRING FEW FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO EASTERN SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING, SO HAVE ONLY LEFT VCTS AND VCSH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE. ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS,
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WHILE WESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
AGAIN IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY STORM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 92 80 92 / 40 60 20 50
WEST KENDALL 77 92 77 93 / 40 70 20 60
OPA-LOCKA 80 93 79 93 / 30 60 10 50
HOMESTEAD 79 92 78 93 / 30 60 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 91 80 91 / 30 60 20 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 92 80 92 / 30 60 20 50
PEMBROKE PINES 81 92 80 92 / 30 60 20 50
WEST PALM BEACH 79 93 78 93 / 30 50 20 50
BOCA RATON 80 90 79 91 / 30 50 20 50
NAPLES 76 91 77 92 / 30 40 30 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...NMP
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