091
FXUS62 KMFL 271741
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1249 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS,
WITH COVERAGE MOST LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL.
HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY FIRING ALONG THE SEA BREEZES JUST INLAND OF THE
EAST AND WEST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE ACROSS INTERIOR/SW FLORIDA. CHANCE OF DIRECT
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST IS LOWER TODAY
WITH PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE
METRO AREAS ARE THE MOST LIKELY REGIONS TO SEE ANY ACTIVITY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NO STRONG ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED YET
HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER CELLS WITH 40-50MPH WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. QUIET CONDITIONS
RETURN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE WET, UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
SOUTH FL REMAINS FLANKED BY TWO BLOCKS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN A BIT LOWER THAN THE SURROUNDING
FEATURES THANKS TO THE SIMULTANEOUS INFLUENCES OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND SEVERAL SUBTLE TUTTS
APPROACHING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, WITH PWATS BACK UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE (IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG), 500MB TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TRENDING LOWER
THAN THEY HAVE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (DOWN TO -7C TO -8C),
AND DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 700- 800 J/KG, STORMS WILL HAVE NO
DIFFICULTY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH
AFTERNOON. AND, GIVEN THE FORECAST PARAMETER SPACE, SOME STRONGER
STORMS COULD END UP PRODUCING WIND GUSTS 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
1-2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FL, WITH ISOLATED 3-4 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS. SIMILARLY TO
PREVIOUS DAYS, ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO START DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EAST COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN, THEN PROPAGATE
INLAND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHERE COVERAGE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL LINGER IN THE LOW 100S, BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE VALUES
RISING INTO THE 105-110F RANGE. THAT BEING SAID, TODAY'S CHANCES FOR
HEAT INDICES TO RISE ABOVE THAT RANGE ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION NOT FIRING UP
UNTIL AFTER NOON. THUS, SHORT-FUSE HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATER TODAY IF THIS OTHER SOLUTION PANS OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY BALMY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST, AND DOWN TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US WILL DEEPEN SOUTHWARD, WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT SETTLING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR REGION, WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO TREND NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL (1.9-2.1 INCH RANGE). EACH AFTERNOON COULD BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, STARTING ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THEN PROCEEDING INLAND INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILARLY TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALL REMAIN POSSIBLE
HAZARDS.
STARTING NEXT WEEK, ONCE THE TROUGH AND FRONT PROGRESS EASTWARD,
MODELS START TO SUGGEST THE TWO FLANKING RIDGES OVER THE US AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL START TO MERGE, EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FL THANKS TO THE CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 80S ACROSS THE COASTLINES, AND MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VCTS FOR EAST COAST
SITES THROUGH 01Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS. MAXIMA OF COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. L/V WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH A SIMILAR FORECAST EVOLUTION
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE. ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS,
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WHILE WESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
AGAIN IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY STORM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 92 80 91 / 20 30 30 60
WEST KENDALL 77 92 78 92 / 20 40 30 70
OPA-LOCKA 79 93 80 92 / 20 30 30 70
HOMESTEAD 79 92 80 92 / 20 30 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 91 80 90 / 20 30 30 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 92 81 91 / 20 30 20 70
PEMBROKE PINES 79 92 81 91 / 20 30 30 70
WEST PALM BEACH 78 93 79 92 / 20 40 20 60
BOCA RATON 78 90 80 90 / 20 40 20 60
NAPLES 77 92 76 92 / 20 50 30 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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