317
FXUS62 KMFL 281800
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND, WITH COVERAGE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL. HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
11Z MESOANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTS THE CONTINUATION OF THE
GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND ACROSS THE REGION AS LOCAL ACARS DATA
AND RTMA ANALYSIS DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO THE
DAILY CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. MSLP ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ENHANCEMENT
OF SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED BACKGROUND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS
MORNING. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE WARM
INSTABILITY LADEN WATERS OF THE GULFSTREAM HAS RESULTED IN
VERTICALLY CAPPED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A
NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
(CIN) OVER LAND HAS KEPT THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE CIN &
WEAK SURFACE INVERSION FULLY ERODES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THESE ISOLATED SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CORES AND RESULTANT ANVIL BLOW-OFF, QUIET CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A QUICK WARM UP IS FORECAST
WITH AMPLE MORNING SUNSHINE, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CUMULUS ACROSS
LAND AREAS, INCIPIENT UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ON THE SEA BREEZE(S),
AND THEN THE BONANZA OF OVERSPREADING CONVECTION THAT IS THE
HALLMARKS OF A TYPICAL AUGUST AFTERNOON IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE WET, UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SOUTH FL REMAINS FLANKED BY TWO BLOCKS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN A BIT LOWER THAN THE SURROUNDING
FEATURES THANKS TO THE SIMULTANEOUS INFLUENCES OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND SEVERAL SUBTLE TUTTS
APPROACHING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, WITH PWATS BACK UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE (IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG), 500MB TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TRENDING LOWER
THAN THEY HAVE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (DOWN TO -7C TO -8C),
AND DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 700-800 J/KG, STORMS WILL HAVE NO
DIFFICULTY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH DAY.
AND, GIVEN THE FORECAST PARAMETER SPACE, SOME STRONGER STORMS
COULD END UP PRODUCING WIND GUSTS 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
1-2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FL, WITH ISOLATED 3-4 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS.
SIMILARLY TO PREVIOUS DAYS, ACTIVITY TODAY IS MOST LIKELY TO START
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN LATE
MORNING , THEN PROPAGATE INLAND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER, IT'S WORTH NOTING
THAT THE HREF AND RRFS BOTH TRY TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY THANKS TO AN
APPROACHING TUTT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL LINGER IN THE LOW 100S, BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE VALUES
RISING INTO THE 105-110F RANGE. THAT BEING SAID, TODAY'S CHANCES FOR
HEAT INDICES TO RISE ABOVE THAT RANGE ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION NOT FIRING UP
UNTIL AFTER NOON. THUS, SHORT-FUSE HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATER TODAY IF THIS OTHER SOLUTION PANS OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY BALMY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST, AND DOWN TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD, DRAGGING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK TUTTS WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE PENINSULA. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO TREND NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (1.9-2.1 INCH RANGE). EACH AFTERNOON
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, STARTING ALONG
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THEN PROCEEDING INLAND INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILARLY TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALL REMAIN
POSSIBLE HAZARDS.
STARTING NEXT WEEK, ONCE THE TROUGH AND FRONT PROGRESS EASTWARD,
MODELS SUGGEST THE TWO FLANKING RIDGES OVER THE US AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL START TO MERGE, EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FL THANKS TO THE CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 80S ACROSS THE COASTLINES, AND MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONSHORE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL BECOME L/V AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST TOMORROW MORNING. SHRA/TSRA
REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TEMPOS AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED SHRA IS POSSIBLE
AT EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 08Z. AT KAPF, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE GULF BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE. ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS,
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WHILE WESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
AGAIN IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY STORM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 92 81 91 / 30 70 40 50
WEST KENDALL 77 91 79 91 / 30 70 40 60
OPA-LOCKA 79 92 80 92 / 30 70 40 60
HOMESTEAD 79 92 80 92 / 30 70 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 91 82 91 / 30 70 50 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 91 82 91 / 30 70 50 60
PEMBROKE PINES 80 91 81 91 / 30 70 40 60
WEST PALM BEACH 79 92 79 92 / 20 60 40 70
BOCA RATON 79 90 80 90 / 30 60 50 70
NAPLES 77 92 77 91 / 30 70 50 80
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...DPB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page