520
FXUS62 KMFL 290251
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1051 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND, WITH COVERAGE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL. HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE WET, UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SOUTH FL REMAINS FLANKED BY TWO BLOCKS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN A BIT LOWER THAN THE SURROUNDING FEATURES
THANKS TO THE SIMULTANEOUS INFLUENCES OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND SEVERAL SUBTLE TUTTS APPROACHING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN, WITH PWATS BACK UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE (IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG),
500MB TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TRENDING LOWER THAN THEY HAVE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (DOWN TO -7C TO -8C), AND DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
700-800 J/KG, STORMS WILL HAVE NO DIFFICULTY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH DAY. AND, GIVEN THE FORECAST PARAMETER
SPACE, SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD END UP PRODUCING WIND GUSTS 40-55
MPH AND SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE HREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL, WITH ISOLATED 3-4 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS.
SIMILARLY TO PREVIOUS DAYS, ACTIVITY TODAY IS MOST LIKELY TO START
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN LATE
MORNING , THEN PROPAGATE INLAND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER, IT'S WORTH NOTING
THAT THE HREF AND RRFS BOTH TRY TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO AN
APPROACHING TUTT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL LINGER IN THE LOW 100S, BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE VALUES
RISING INTO THE 105-110F RANGE. THAT BEING SAID, TODAY'S CHANCES FOR
HEAT INDICES TO RISE ABOVE THAT RANGE ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION NOT FIRING UP
UNTIL AFTER NOON. THUS, SHORT-FUSE HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATER TODAY IF THIS OTHER SOLUTION PANS OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY BALMY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST, AND DOWN TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD, DRAGGING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK TUTTS WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE PENINSULA. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO TREND NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (1.9-2.1 INCH RANGE). EACH AFTERNOON
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, STARTING ALONG
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THEN PROCEEDING INLAND INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILARLY TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALL REMAIN
POSSIBLE HAZARDS.
STARTING NEXT WEEK, ONCE THE TROUGH AND FRONT PROGRESS EASTWARD,
MODELS SUGGEST THE TWO FLANKING RIDGES OVER THE US AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL START TO MERGE, EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FL THANKS TO THE CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 80S ACROSS THE COASTLINES, AND MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING. ISOLATED SHRA REMAINS POSSIBLE AT EAST
COAST TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-16Z. SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 16Z, BUT CONFIDENCE ON DIRECT IMPACTS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE. ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS,
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WHILE WESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN
IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY STORM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 92 81 92 / 40 50 40 60
WEST KENDALL 78 92 80 92 / 30 50 30 60
OPA-LOCKA 80 93 82 93 / 40 50 40 60
HOMESTEAD 79 92 81 92 / 40 50 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 91 82 91 / 40 50 50 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 92 82 92 / 30 50 50 70
PEMBROKE PINES 81 92 82 92 / 40 50 40 70
WEST PALM BEACH 80 93 80 92 / 20 50 50 70
BOCA RATON 80 90 80 90 / 30 50 50 70
NAPLES 77 93 77 92 / 30 70 40 90
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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