193
FXUS62 KMFL 291744
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
144 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND, WITH COVERAGE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL. HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
08Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS WEAK COASTAL CONVERGENCE HAS SET UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AS SURFACE FRICTION ACTS
TO SLOW THOSE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE COASTLINE. A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION TO YESTERDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO PLAY OUT AS
NOCTURNAL SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST SHOULD PEAK
AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE THE MAXIMA OF CONVECTION FOCUSES OVER LAND
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ACARS DATA AND
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE A STOUT NEAR SURFACE
INVERSION AND AMPLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS INLAND AREAS, IN
SIMPLE TERMS, THAT MEANS THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
EAST COAST AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE INHIBITION
AND NEAR SURFACE INVERSION ERODES VIA DIURNAL MIXING/HEATING. THE
PARAMETERS AND HAZARDS DISCUSSED BELOW, AS WELL AS THE OVERALL
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY VIA
GOES-EAST THIS MORNING DEPICTS THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
TUTT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WHICH MAY ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPCOMING 12Z MFL UPPER AIR SOUNDING
WILL PROVIDE US ADDITIONAL SAMPLING ON THE UPPER AIR PROFILE FOR
TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE WET, UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SOUTH FL REMAINS FLANKED BY TWO BLOCKS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN A BIT LOWER THAN THE SURROUNDING FEATURES
THANKS TO THE SIMULTANEOUS INFLUENCES OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND SEVERAL SUBTLE TUTTS APPROACHING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN, WITH PWATS BACK UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE (IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG),
500MB TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TRENDING LOWER THAN THEY HAVE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (DOWN TO -7C TO -8C), AND DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
700-800 J/KG, STORMS WILL HAVE NO DIFFICULTY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH DAY. AND, GIVEN THE FORECAST PARAMETER
SPACE, SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD END UP PRODUCING WIND GUSTS 40-55
MPH AND SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE HREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL, WITH ISOLATED 3-4 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS.
SIMILARLY TO PREVIOUS DAYS, ACTIVITY TODAY IS MOST LIKELY TO START
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN LATE
MORNING , THEN PROPAGATE INLAND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER, IT'S WORTH NOTING
THAT THE HREF AND RRFS BOTH TRY TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY TODAY THANKS TO AN
APPROACHING TUTT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL LINGER IN THE LOW 100S, BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE VALUES
RISING INTO THE 105-110F RANGE. THAT BEING SAID, TODAY'S CHANCES FOR
HEAT INDICES TO RISE ABOVE THAT RANGE ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION NOT FIRING UP
UNTIL AFTER NOON. THUS, SHORT-FUSE HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATER TODAY IF THIS OTHER SOLUTION PANS OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY BALMY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST, AND DOWN TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD, DRAGGING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK TUTTS WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE PENINSULA. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO TREND NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (1.9-2.1 INCH RANGE). EACH AFTERNOON
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, STARTING ALONG
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THEN PROCEEDING INLAND INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILARLY TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALL REMAIN
POSSIBLE HAZARDS.
STARTING NEXT WEEK, ONCE THE TROUGH AND FRONT PROGRESS EASTWARD,
MODELS SUGGEST THE TWO FLANKING RIDGES OVER THE US AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL START TO MERGE, EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FL THANKS TO THE CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 80S ACROSS THE COASTLINES, AND MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. WHILE
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. AT KAPF, SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME WSW THIS AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE TRIES TO
PUSH INLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE. ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS,
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WHILE WESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN
IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY STORM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 91 80 91 / 40 70 30 70
WEST KENDALL 78 91 78 91 / 40 70 20 80
OPA-LOCKA 81 92 80 92 / 40 70 20 70
HOMESTEAD 80 91 80 92 / 40 60 20 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 90 / 40 60 30 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 91 81 91 / 40 70 30 70
PEMBROKE PINES 81 91 81 91 / 40 70 20 70
WEST PALM BEACH 79 92 79 91 / 40 70 30 80
BOCA RATON 80 90 80 90 / 40 70 30 70
NAPLES 77 91 76 92 / 30 90 30 90
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...CWC
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