204
FXUS62 KMFL 300530
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS
WELL AS DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
A RATHER WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A WEAK TUTT FEATURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN
EXTRA SOURCE OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AS PWAT VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2.0 AND
2.3 INCHES. WHILE ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
AS THIS EVENING PROGRESSES, ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COVERAGE MAY
ONCE AGAIN BE HIGHER THAN THAT OF THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DUE TO THE TUTT PROVIDING AN EXTRA SOURCE OF LIFT. WHILE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH
THE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS COMBINED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING,
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE STORMS WITH
THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PLACE OVER THE URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS THEY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MOST AREAS. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON STORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER, WHEREAS AREAS THAT
HAVE LESS CLOUD COVER COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE BETWEEN
105 AND 110.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD, DRAGGING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK TUTTS WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE PENINSULA. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO TREND NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (1.9-2.1 INCH RANGE). EACH AFTERNOON
COULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, STARTING ALONG
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THEN PROCEEDING INLAND INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILARLY TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALL REMAIN
POSSIBLE HAZARDS.
STARTING NEXT WEEK, ONCE THE TROUGH AND FRONT PROGRESS EASTWARD,
MODELS SUGGEST THE TWO FLANKING RIDGES OVER THE US AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL START TO MERGE, EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FL THANKS TO THE CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 80S ACROSS THE COASTLINES, AND MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 15Z WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON,
FAVORING APF AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SE BETWEEN
15-16Z 7-10 KTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. AT KAPF, WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WSW AFTER 17Z AS THE GULF BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND. GENERALLY VFR AND L/V FLOW RETURNS AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWEST
EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 81 92 81 / 60 30 70 30
WEST KENDALL 92 80 92 79 / 60 30 70 20
OPA-LOCKA 93 80 93 80 / 70 40 70 30
HOMESTEAD 92 79 92 79 / 60 40 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 82 91 81 / 60 50 70 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 92 81 91 81 / 70 50 70 40
PEMBROKE PINES 92 82 92 80 / 70 40 70 30
WEST PALM BEACH 92 80 92 79 / 70 60 80 30
BOCA RATON 90 81 90 81 / 70 50 70 40
NAPLES 92 77 92 77 / 80 40 80 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...17
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