557
FXUS62 KMFL 300807
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
407 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 403 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS
WELL AS DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A RATHER WET PATTERN
PREVAILING ACROSS SOFLO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. U/L HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SE CONUS, SLOWLY MIGRATING
EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, THE W ATL SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE, ALLOWING FOR A DEEP EASTERLY WIND REGIME TO REMAIN IN
PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP SUPPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACTING AS FOCAL POINTS FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION.
00Z MFL AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PWATS REMAINING IN THE 1.9-
2.3" RANGE, WHILE SHORT-RANGE MODEL INSTABILITY VARIABLES SHOW
CAPE/MUCAPE IN THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE. AT THE SAME TIME, SYNOPTIC
ANALYSES DEPICTS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) FEATURE
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PENINSULA TODAY. THEREFORE, THE COMBINATION OF THESE KEY
PARAMETERS PLUS THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ADVECTION (ALONG WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F) WILL RESULT IN MAX
POPS OF 70-80% EACH DAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
ALSO ANTICIPATED, WITH WIDE-SPREAD SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION SHIFTING
INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BECOME A KEY CONCERN, ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING. THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%
CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HIT THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. AREAS EXPERIENCING
LESS CLOUD COVER COULD HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105F AND 110F
RANGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
MODELS PUSH A TUTT FEATURE OVER THE STATE FURTHER EASTWARD, WHILE A
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE SE CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE W ATL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, KEEPING A GENERALLY E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOFLO.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PERSIST DURING THE LONG TERM AND KEEPING
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, WITH MODEL PWATS REMAINING ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND OR ABOVE 2" THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY, THEN PUSHING INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
THROUGH MID WEEK, MODELS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND FRONT
PROGRESSING EASTWARD, WITH THE TWO FLANKING RIDGES OVER THE CONUS
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STARTING TO MERGE, EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FL THANKS TO THE CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW. THE WET PATTERN SHOULD
EXTEND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 80S ACROSS THE COASTLINES, AND MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 15Z WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON,
FAVORING APF AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SE BETWEEN
15-16Z 7-10 KTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. AT KAPF, WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WSW AFTER 17Z AS THE GULF BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND. GENERALLY VFR AND L/V FLOW RETURNS AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE
WINDS MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON AS A GULF
BREEZE DEVELOPS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 91 81 91 80 / 60 30 60 20
WEST KENDALL 91 79 91 78 / 60 30 60 20
OPA-LOCKA 92 81 92 80 / 60 30 70 20
HOMESTEAD 91 80 91 80 / 60 30 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 81 90 81 / 70 30 60 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 82 91 81 / 70 30 60 30
PEMBROKE PINES 91 81 91 80 / 70 30 70 20
WEST PALM BEACH 91 80 91 80 / 70 30 70 30
BOCA RATON 90 80 90 81 / 70 30 70 30
NAPLES 91 76 91 76 / 70 30 80 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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