558
FXUS62 KMFL 310617
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
217 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 208 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AS WELL
AS DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A PERSISTENT WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. DEEP LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ALONG THE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND PWATS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2.1
AND 2.3 INCHES HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THEN INTO MONDAY.
AS THIS EVENING PROGRESSES, MOST OF THE ONGOING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL
AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DUE TO LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND EAST COAST HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
AS MONDAY PROGRESSES, THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 500MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP A BIT AND GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN -5.5
TO -6.5C HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
TRIES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WILL HELP SPARK OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION, HOWEVER, THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH STORMS STARTING OUT OVER THE EAST COAST IN THE MORNING
AND MIDDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE CHANCES OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER, IT CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES, HIGH RAINFALL
RATES WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
MODELS PUSH A TUTT FEATURE OVER THE STATE FURTHER EASTWARD, WHILE A
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE SE CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE W ATL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, KEEPING A GENERALLY E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOFLO.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PERSIST DURING THE LONG TERM AND KEEPING
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, WITH MODEL PWATS REMAINING ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND OR ABOVE 2" THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY, THEN PUSHING INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
THROUGH MID WEEK, MODELS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND FRONT
PROGRESSING EASTWARD, WITH THE TWO FLANKING RIDGES OVER THE CONUS
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STARTING TO MERGE, EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FL THANKS TO THE CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW. THE WET PATTERN SHOULD
EXTEND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 80S ACROSS THE COASTLINES, AND MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AROUND 15Z WITH MAINLY L/V FLOW. PERIODS OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHRA/TSRA
AROUND THE TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME MAINLY ESE AROUND 8KT AFTER
15Z, EXCEPT FOR WESTERLY FLOW AT APF WITH AFTERNOON GULF BREEZES.
L/V FLOW AND MAINLY VFR RETURNS AFTER 00-01Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS
MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE
DEVELOPS. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT
2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS EACH DAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 80 92 81 / 70 40 60 30
WEST KENDALL 91 78 91 79 / 70 40 60 20
OPA-LOCKA 92 79 92 80 / 70 40 60 30
HOMESTEAD 92 78 92 79 / 70 40 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 81 91 82 / 70 50 60 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 81 91 81 / 70 50 60 30
PEMBROKE PINES 91 80 92 81 / 70 40 60 30
WEST PALM BEACH 92 79 92 80 / 60 50 70 20
BOCA RATON 90 79 90 80 / 70 50 70 30
NAPLES 91 76 91 77 / 70 40 80 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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