355
FXUS62 KMFL 310812
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
412 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 359 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- SOUTH FLORIDA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TODAY. DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH
U/L HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY MIGRATING EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE THE W ATL SFC RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO WILL KEEP A GENERALLY E/SE WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK, AND CONTINUING MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS SOFLO.
MODELS SHOW THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS BRINGING HIGH CHANCES OF
RAIN EACH DAY, WITH SOUNDING AND MODEL PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES, AND
CAPE/MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA, WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX POPS REMAIN IN THE 70-80% RANGE EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE. MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY
RAIN.
LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A KEY CONCERN, ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN
AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING. LATEST WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK KEEPS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5% CHANCE) TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN HIT THE LOW-MID 90S, ALONG
WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110F RANGE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
A TUTT FEATURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD AND AWAY FORM THE STATE BY
MID WEEK, WHILE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE SE CONUS.
MODELS ALSO AGREE IN KEEPING THE W ATL RIDGE AXIS LINGERING AROUND
THE SE ATL SEABOARD, JUST NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THIS WILL KEEP THE PREVAILI
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS
MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE
DEVELOPS. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT
2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS EACH DAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
NG E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
SOFLO, WITH DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTING DURING THE
LONG TERM.
MODEL PWATS KEEP VALUES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, MAINLY AROUND OR
ABOVE 2" THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL AGAIN HAPPEN WITH THE ONSET
OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, FIRST ALONG THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHING INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT EACH DAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE COASTLINES, AND MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AROUND 15Z WITH MAINLY L/V FLOW. PERIODS OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHRA/TSRA
AROUND THE TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME MAINLY ESE AROUND 8KT AFTER
15Z, EXCEPT FOR WESTERLY FLOW AT APF WITH AFTERNOON GULF BREEZES.
L/V FLOW AND MAINLY VFR RETURNS AFTER 00-01Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE
WINDS MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS,
ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS, WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 91 80 91 81 / 60 30 70 30
WEST KENDALL 91 77 91 79 / 70 30 70 20
OPA-LOCKA 92 80 92 79 / 70 30 80 30
HOMESTEAD 91 79 91 79 / 60 30 70 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 79 90 80 / 60 30 80 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 80 91 81 / 70 40 80 40
PEMBROKE PINES 91 79 91 80 / 70 30 80 30
WEST PALM BEACH 91 78 91 79 / 70 40 70 30
BOCA RATON 90 79 90 79 / 60 50 80 30
NAPLES 91 76 90 77 / 50 40 70 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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